Donald Trump suffers triple polling blow in 48 hours after guilty verdict

Former President Donald Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.

A New York jury on Thursday found Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels alleges she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence, claiming the case is politically motivated, and his lawyers plan to fight the verdict and appeal the case if necessary.

In a YouGov snap poll conducted just hours after the verdict was announced, 50 percent of the 3,040 U.S. adults who were polled said they believed Trump was guilty, while 30 percent said they believed he was not guilty. Another 19 percent said they were not sure. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.

When broken down into party lines, 15 percent of Republicans think he is guilty while 64 percent do not, 48 percent of independents think Trump is guilty while 25 percent do not, and 86 percent of Democrats believe he is guilty while 5 percent do not. A total of 831 Republicans, 1,114 independents, and 1,113 Democrats were surveyed. The margin of error of the subgroups are unclear.

Former President Donald Trump arrives to Trump Tower on Thursday in New York City. Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.
Former President Donald Trump arrives to Trump Tower on Thursday in New York City. Trump has suffered losses in three separate polls in the 48 hours since his guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial.
James Devaney/GC Images

A Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday found 54 percent of registered voters approve of the jury’s verdict while 39 percent disapprove. Across party lines, 18 percent of Republicans approve of the verdict while 74 percent disapprove, 52 percent of independents approve while 33 disapprove and 88 percent of Democrats approve while 8 percent disapprove. The poll surveyed 2,220 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The sizes and margins of error of the subsamples are also unclear.

Of the 2,220 registered voters, 51 percent said Trump should end his presidential campaign, while 43 percent said he should not. The majority of Republicans surveyed in the poll (79 percent) believe Trump should not drop out, however, 15 percent said he should. Meanwhile, 87 percent of Trump supporters don’t want him to end his campaign while 8 percent do. The margin of error for the Republican subsample is unclear.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Thursday and Friday found that 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents said they are much less likely to vote for Trump because of the jury’s ruling. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of independents said the verdict made them much more likely to vote for Trump. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) said the verdict didn’t change their minds on whether or not to vote for the former president.

The subsample of Republicans was 828 U.S. adults (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent), independents was 708 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent), and Democrats was 774 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent).

Meanwhile, Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign communications director, told Newsweek via email on Saturday, “President Trump has seen an outpouring support, which has led to polling increases and record-shattering fundraising numbers that include close to $53 million in just 24 hours, 30% of those who are new donors.”

He also mentioned a snap Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll taken after Thursday’s verdict, which found that Trump’s approval rating was up by 6 percentage points compared to those who disapproved.

A total of 22 percent of likely voters had a more positive view of Trump after his guilty verdict while 16 percent had a more negative view. Meanwhile, 32 percent of likely voters who already had a negative view of Trump had no change of opinion while 27 percent of likely voters who already had a positive view of Trump had no change. The poll surveyed 403 likely voters from Thursday to Friday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.