Armenians are hard-wired to fear genocide – and many fear the worst
Moscow correspondent
Seeing the images of Karabakh Armenians fleeing, suitcases in hand, makes for sombre viewing. This region has seen mass exodus before, but there is a degree of finality to this latest episode.
The local Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have said the entire Armenian population, 120,000 of them, will leave rather than live as part of Azerbaijan.
Thousands have already crossed into Armenia, thousands more will follow, and it remains to be seen how many are brave or stubborn enough to stay in their historic homeland under Azeri rule, given the decades-long hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan which has had ownership of this mountainous plot of land at its heart.
If this does represent the end of Armenian life in Karabakh, that is a heavy legacy for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and one that – as the protests in Yerevan show – he may find hard to weather.
He made it clear he would not commit troops to fight off Azerbaijan’s 24-hour blitzkrieg last week. He has acknowledged Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the region, perhaps cognisant of the fact he cannot win another war against a militarily far stronger Azeri army backed by Turkey. He may blame Russian peacekeepers for failing to keep the peace, which is demonstrably true, but he also chose not to get involved.
Armenians are hard-wired to fear genocide and conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh have been increasingly untenable for them given the blockade.
They are leaving now because they fear the worst.
Whatever promises the Azeri president may make that they will be looked after, history shows that there is little reason to trust him.