Month: December 2024

Insurgents in Syria appear to have captured an advanced Russian air-defense system, according to images widely circulating on social media, after rebel forces launched a surprise offensive last week in the north of the country that marked an end to a long-running stalemate.

Images appear to show Russian equipment, including a multiple rocket launcher and a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile system, in the hands of rebel forces in the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo.

Newsweek could not independently verify this, but the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Saturday that opposition forces “have likely captured valuable military equipment” that pro-regime fighters “abandoned amid disorderly withdrawals.”

The Russian Defense Ministry has been contacted via email for comment.

On Wednesday, rebel forces swept into Aleppo and the Hama province, to the south of the city, in a surprise offensive that apparently met little resistance from forces controlled by Syrian President and Kremlin ally, Bashar al-Assad.

Forces loyal to the Syrian leader had pushed rebel militants, which include Turkish-backed fighters, from Aleppo and settlements in Hama back in 2016. The conflict, while not resolved, had lapsed into a relatively static conflict in recent years. More than 300,000 civilians were killed in the first 10 years of the conflict, the United Nations estimated in 2022.

Russia has supported the Assad regime since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, formally entering the conflict in 2015 to prop up the Syrian leader. The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies has described the Russian move into the conflict as providing “decisive air power to Syrian and Iranian-backed ground forces,” and broadening Assad’s grip on territory in the country.

Moscow is deeply embroiled in its grueling war effort in Ukraine, while Iran is preoccupied with Israel, against which it launched two direct missile and drone attacks earlier this year.

The Syrian armed forces, loyal to Assad, said on Saturday that rebels had “launched a large-scale attack” on multiple points in Aleppo and Idlib, saying “dozens” of pro-regime soldiers were killed.

The army pulled back to strengthen their defensive lines, the military said, and to “prepare for a counterattack” to the most significant challenge to the Syrian president’s rule in several years.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K-based monitoring organization, said on Friday that Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other factions had taken control of 20 “villages, towns, and positions in Idlib and Aleppo countryside.” Idlib sits southwest of the city.

The ISW said on Saturday that opposition forces had seized Aleppo and “advanced toward Hama City” within three days of the start of the offensive. Rebels are thought to control the city’s airport and major landmarks in Aleppo.

Syria’s army said on Sunday it had pulled reinforcements to the northern Hama countryside, and that the “Syrian-Russian joint military aviation is intensifying its precise strikes” on the rebels’ ammunition and weapons depots, headquarters and positions.

The SOHR said on Sunday that four civilians had been killed and tens of others injured in Russian airstrikes on Idlib. A total of 372 civilian and military personnel had been killed since Wednesday.

It also reported intensified armed clashes around northern Aleppo on Sunday and several Russian aircraft targeting rebel forces in the countryside around the city.

Assad, said on Saturday that Syria would “defend its stability and territorial integrity.”

Completely ruining relations is not in the interest of either Azerbaijan or Russia. The current cooling of relations is unlikely to be long-lasting and will probably last at most a few months or half a year, according to the head of the Center for Applied Political Research Penta Volodymyr Fesenko.

An example of this can be the 2015 incident when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border. This triggered a full-blown crisis, with Moscow clashing with Ankara and even imposing sanctions. However, after a few months, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan apologized, and relations gradually normalized.

“Of course, there are still some contradictions between Putin and Erdoğan, but they have restored not just nominally friendly, but also partnership relations in many areas. I think the situation with Azerbaijan will be similar,” he noted.

The episode with the AZAL plane crash and the “nonsensical versions” revealed the nature of Putin’s regime.

“It is a distorted ‘great power mentality,’ an immoral way of behaving when Russia cannot admit its guilt, and does not want to act the way civilized countries do in such situations. Right now, Aliyev is offended and cannot ignore the dignity of his state, so he has to show a strong reaction. Relations with Putin are important to him, he does not intend to quarrel, but at the same time, he showed that he will not turn a blind eye. Moreover, this also shows that Putin is no longer feared as he once was,” Fesenko concluded.

Plane crash in Kazakhstan

On December 25, a passenger plane Embraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny.

There were 67 people on board, including the crew. The crash resulted in 38 fatalities.

According to media reports, drones were being shot down in Grozny that day, and the plane may have been hit, so it was unable to land. As a result, the Embraer 190 crashed near Aktau.

As reported by Euronews, Azerbaijani authorities confirmed that the crash was caused by a Russian missile.

Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the “tragic incident” involving the Azerbaijan Airlines plane but did not acknowledge that the aircraft was shot down by Russian forces.

More details about the crash can be found in the material by RBC-Ukraine.