Day: July 13, 2024

If Mr. Trump maintains his advantage in those four states, he will have a total of 268 electoral votes — only two short of the 270 needed to win the election.

All Mr. Trump would need to win is one of the three remaining battleground states: Michigan … … Pennsylvania … … or Wisconsin. If Mr. Trump were to carry all three of these states he would win decisively, with 312 electoral votes.

These states, which total 36 electoral votes, have been safely part of the Democratic Party base in recent years. Maine has voted for the Democratic nominee in the last eight elections, Minnesota every time since 1972, New Hampshire for the last five elections, New Mexico in every election except one since 1988, and Virginia in the last four elections. (Mr. Biden will also need to defend Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which he won by more than six points in 2020, in order to win the election.)

If Mr. Biden were to lose these states and the seven battlegrounds, Mr. Trump would win with 347 electoral votes — the largest presidential electoral victory since 2008. Assuming that Mr. Biden could hold these five states only brings his total back up to 226 electoral votes — 44 short of the 270 he needs to get re-elected. Unless the basic contours of the race change and some of the Sun Belt battleground states become more competitive (which is unlikely), Mr. Biden’s only viable path for winning is to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In a clear night sky above the shores of Odesa, the faint glow from missiles streaks over the Black Sea.

For much of the war, it was one-way traffic, with Russia using the occupied Crimean Peninsula first as a launchpad for its full-scale invasion and then as a staging ground for routine aerial bombardments.

Ukraine, now armed with American-made precision missiles, is for the first time capable of reaching every corner of Crimea — and the missiles are increasingly flying in both directions.

It is a new strategic push as Kyiv seeks to raise the cost for Russian occupation forces that have long used the peninsula as a base of operations just off Ukraine’s southern coast.

While it is unlikely to have much effect on the front line, Ukraine’s campaign with the long-range version of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, appears meant to force the Kremlin to make difficult choices about where to deploy some of its most valuable air defenses to protect critical military infrastructure.

At the NATO summit in Washington this past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the Crimean campaign would have limited effect as long as Moscow can move its bombers to the safety of air bases deep in Russia. He pressed the Biden administration to lift restrictions so Kyiv can extend its strikes deep into Russia.

Since the arrival of the ATACMS this spring, the Ukrainian military has claimed to have destroyed or damaged at least 15 Russian long-range air defense systems in Crimea. Among those are the powerful S-300 and S-400 batteries, Moscow’s version of the American Patriot air defense system.

Over the past three months, commercial satellite imagery examined by military analysts has confirmed damage to Russian radar installations, electronic warfare assets, logistics routes and air fields.

“It is definitely fair to say the Ukrainians have had pretty impressive successes over the past couple of months,” said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London who has studied the satellite imagery.

It is impossible to confirm every Ukrainian claim, and throughout the war, Mr. Bronk said, new high-tech weapons have generally become less effective as the Russians adapt and Ukrainian stockpiles dwindle.

The strikes on Crimea are also likely to have a minimal effect on the fighting on the front, especially in eastern Ukraine, where the heaviest battles are taking place and where Russian forces continue to gain ground.

The attacks on the peninsula that use Western weapons have drawn Russia’s ire, prompting it to warn the United States of the “consequences” it will face for providing advanced weapons to Kyiv.

Related in part to these warnings, several American bases in Europe were recently put on a heightened state of alert, according to two U.S. military officials and one senior Western intelligence official. The bases, including the U.S. Army garrison in Stuttgart, Germany, where the headquarters of the U.S. European Command are, were apparently concerned about potential Russian sabotage.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Crimea holds deep political, symbolic and military value for President Vladimir V. Putin, who has called it Russia’s “holy land,” placing it at the center of his false narrative that Ukraine is part of Russia.

Since illegally annexing Crimea in 2014, Moscow has heavily invested in expanding its military footprint. From Sevastopol in the west to Kerch in the east, military installations have been spotted dotting both coastal areas and hidden within mountainous enclaves. Used to create an image of Russia as a great power, the Kremlin has also poured resources into making it a tourist destination.

Crimea helps to sustain the Russian occupation in southern Ukraine and is packed with land-based missile systems used to target Ukrainian cities and towns. Penetrating Russia’s robust air defenses remains challenging, but this summer, Ukraine was able to launch the same kind of assaults aimed at overwhelming and confusing the air defenses that it has been defending against for years.

In a multipronged attack starting on May 29, Ukraine used domestically produced air and sea drones, Western cruise missiles and ATACMS to overwhelm advanced Russian air defenses, the Ukrainian military and intelligence services said.

The attack damaged two ferries that played a critical roll in the military supply chain between Russia and Crimea, a result confirmed by satellite imagery reviewed by military analysts, British military intelligence, Ukrainian officials and, in part, by local Russian officials.

“The Ukrainian strike on the ferry crossings and a subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot, highlights again the vulnerability of the Strait to Ukrainian interdiction, despite Russia’s significant investment in security and air defense,” the British military intelligence agency said in a statement a week after the assault.

A senior U.S. official who closely tracks the war said Ukraine was using the American-supplied long-range missiles “very effectively.”

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, said Ukraine had enough ATACMS to keep up the Crimea campaign, adding that munitions were being replenished on a continuous basis.

While not providing exact numbers, the official said the United States was sending “scores” of missiles, but not “hundreds.”

Continued attacks on Russian air defenses could force Moscow to move some warplanes from Crimea “or risk losing more aircraft,” the British military intelligence agency reported.

Ukraine is pressing the Biden administration to lift restrictions so it can extend the campaign to target air bases deep inside Russia, limiting the number of places Russian bombers can find sanctuary.

“Imagine how much we can achieve when all limitations are lifted,” Mr. Zelensky said in a speech this past week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Washington.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe who has long advocated giving Ukraine long-range strike abilities, said he was impressed with the Ukrainian targeting methodology since the arrival of the ATACMS.

“They are doing what we would be doing,” he said. “Going after air defenses to set the groundwork for whatever is coming next.”

F-16 fighter jets provided by the West are expected to start flying in the skies above Ukraine in limited numbers this summer, but their effectiveness would be limited if Russia’s air defenses remained intact.

“If you want your drones or F-16s or any other asset to come in and hit big targets, you need to clear the way,” Mr. Hodges said.

Russia has responded to the uptick in attacks on Crimea by bringing in air defense systems from Kaliningrad and other parts of the country, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.

The Kremlin also dispatched its S-500 Prometheus air defense system to the battlefield for the first time, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, told reporters last month.

Janes, a defense intelligence company in London, said that its analysts visually confirmed the deployment of at least the radar component of the S-500 to Crimea.

Russia still has robust air defenses, as was evident during a recent attack that appeared to be aimed at the Belbek air base just north of Sevastopol. Debris from an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell on a nearby beach, killing five civilians and injuring dozens more, according to Russian officials.

Russia immediately blamed the United States for the deaths, and the Kremlin summoned the American ambassador in Moscow. The Russian Defense Ministry warned that the strikes in Crimea were raising the “risk of direct confrontation between the alliance and the Russian Federation.”

But Ukraine shows no sign of slowing its campaign in Crimea, and residents there who were reached by secure messaging apps said the usual summer crowds of tourists were noticeably thinner.

While people still go to the beaches, one person said, some now wear badges with their name, home address and contacts for their next of kin.

Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Anna Sikorska from Kyiv, Ukraine. Nataliia Novosolova and Anastasia Kuznietsova contributed research.