Day: February 26, 2024

Russian threats of nuclear escalation are notably resurfacing as President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” enters its third year.

Why?

Outright victories on the Ukrainian battlefield are proving elusive for the Russian military, rendering Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka a significant rare win for Kremlin propaganda.

But it came at a high cost to Moscow throughout the front lines.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported Oct. 9 total Russian-troop deaths of 282,630.

By Feb. 20, they were at 404,950.

That’s more than 122,000 Russian soldiers killed in 19 weeks of fighting.

Compare Soviet-military deaths in Afghanistan: 15,000 in 10 years.

Unsustainable? By Western standards, probably, but that’s a hazard of mirror imaging. 

The Kremlin has demonstrated a complete disregard for civilian and military casualties and will continue to press its counteroffensive as Ukraine exhausts its ammunition supplies; there are more bodies where those came from. 

Ukraine’s military-intelligence agency says Russia has about 450,000 soldiers deployed in the country.

Putin has the towns of Krynky, Verbove, Robotyne, Synkivka and Ivanivka in his sights, and Russian barrier troops — which keep soldiers from evacuating — will ensure forward movement.

But upcoming Biden administration and German decisions concerning the deployment of precision deep-strike weapons — namely ATACMS and the Taurus cruise missile — are likely weighing heavily on Putin’s mind, along with the coming introduction of F-16 fighter jets.

Ditto bilateral security guarantees, some signed just days ago, with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Denmark, Italy and Canada — and Sweden’s and Britain’s announcements last week of additional military assistance.

Europe is not giving up on Ukraine.

Propaganda wins aside, it was a losing week for Putin.

While the Kremlin pushed Ukrainian forces out of Avdiivka, devastating human and equipment losses bely Putin’s “winning” narrative.

As many as 65 soldiers from Russia’s 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade stationed near Trudivske, in the Donetsk region, were killed midweek in a single HIMARS strike on their training area. 

And Ukraine can use Western-supplied weapons to hit inside Russia, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters last week: “According to international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defense. And it also includes strikes against legitimate military targets, Russian military targets outside of Ukraine.”

Then Friday, Ukraine shot down its second Russian A-50 surveillance aircraft in just over a month.

Ukrainian military sources said they hit the plane — whose cost can run to the hundreds of millions of dollars — between Russian cities Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar.

That’s more than 124 miles from the front line, adding to speculation as to what weapon system was used to take it down.

For the week, Russia lost an additional seven aircraft, Su-34 fighter-bombers and Su-35S fighter jets.

The A-50 downing was parlayed Friday evening when Ukrainian drones were able to strike deep into the Russian interior, hitting the Novolipetsk Steel factory in the city of Lipetsk, responsible for nearly 18% of the country’s steel output.

Putin needs a global way out to reset his military.

Killing Alexei Navalny solidified his domestic position, but it changed the decision-making calculus vis-à-vis Ukraine for many Western leaders.

“Escalating to de-escalate” is a favored Putin tactic, and thus he is once again playing nuclear cards to try to intimidate the West to stand down in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, Security Council deputy chairman and former president, threatened America and Europe last week with nuclear annihilation should Russia lose the war and be forced to return to its 1991 borders.

His statement came shortly after House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) announced he “had information concerning a serious national security threat,” which turned out to be a Russian nuclear anti-satellite capability.

Putin underscored the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling by flying Thursday on a Tu-160M nuclear-capable strategic bomber — just one of many messages sent over the last two years that have contributed to the Biden administration’s escalation paralysis.

The United States, NATO and the European Union cannot afford to be cowered by Putin’s nuclear threats — an oratorical Cuban Missile Crisis. 

Russian forces in Ukraine are vulnerable, and the West must play its substantial military advantages by arming Ukraine with the right weapons in sustained quantities sufficient to win the war and secure democracy in Europe.

Putin’s nuclear threats must not go unanswered.

Washington must confront Putin just as President John Kennedy did Nikita Khrushchev.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.