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Opinion After Hamas’s massacre, clarity on the Iran-China-Russia threat is vital

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The animating hatred of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack in Israel was specific — this was a pogrom against Jews — but the massacre was indiscriminate in its deadly swath. The victims were overwhelmingly Israeli Jews, but Jews and non-Jews alike were among the more than 1,400 people killed. They came from dozens of countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, Portugal, Romania, South Africa, Thailand and the United States.

It was an attack on the state of Israel, of course, because Hamas — like other Iranian puppets, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — thinks the nation has no right to exist. For Islamist fanatics such as these, though, a more basic motivation is this: They want Jews dead. Consider the recording revealed by the Israel military on Monday of an exultant Hamas terrorist calling his parents, crowing, “Your son killed so many Jews. Mum, your son is a hero.”

Many serious and candid people know that the masterminds and financiers of the slaughter, its strategists and tacticians, have an address: Tehran.

“Iran invaded Israel,” Robert C. O’Brien told me in a radio interview last week. The former national security adviser to President Donald Trump had previously served in his administration as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs during a period that saw dozens of American hostages returned to the United States. O’Brien has great diplomatic skills, but now he does not mince words.

Of Hamas and the Oct. 7 attack, O’Brien said, “These guys are serial killers. They’re not even terrorists. I think that’s too good of a label for them. This is like having Ted Bundy or John Wayne Gacy and a bunch of them living as your neighbors. You can’t have John Wayne Gacy as your neighbor who’s killed a couple of your kids, and then say ‘Well, if you build a higher wall, you know, it’ll be fine to keep him as a neighbor.’ These serial killers of Hamas have to be rooted out.”

That is the sort of clarity and resolve needed today. Let’s also be clear about who is allied with Iran’s so-called supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: dictators Xi Jinping in China and Vladimir Putin in Russia. The ruthlessness of these tyrants is not in dispute.

Khamenei, before aiding and encouraging the Oct. 7 slaughter in Israel, crushed protests in his own country, leaving hundreds dead. Xi’s Chinese Communist Party has perpetrated genocide against the Uyghur people of the Xinjiang region. Putin long ago demonstrated his capacity for barbarism, in Russia’s assaults on Chechnya in the 1990s, and he followed that brutal path in the invasion of Ukraine.

Perhaps too many in the West are not familiar enough with Xi’s and Putin’s outrages. The CCP worked hard to conceal its campaign against the Uyghurs, and as retired general David Petraeus and historian Andrew Roberts note in their new book, “Conflict,” the full extent of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine are still yet to be known.

But make no mistake, these regimes are in league with Iran as enemies of freedom and democracy. They supply each other raw materials, weapons and investment. It is all one enemy, one evil force, waging war on the West.

This is not the “clash of civilizations” Samuel P. Huntington predicted in the 1990s. It is a clash between the civilized — the West, both as traditionally represented by the nation-state, but also by those peoples held captive by these uncivilized regimes — and the barbaric.

Unless we first recognize the barbarity, the depth of the depravity coursing through these three linked regimes, we cannot possible defeat it. Can a post-Christian West, tied in knots by “social issues,” rally to its own defense?

The combined poisons of communism, fascism and Islamist fanaticism cannot be defeated without a moral clarity that too many hesitate to express for fear of offending the small contingent of fellow citizens who prefer to impose their own absurd ideological slogans on everyone. The vast bulk of U.S. universities cannot even rise to the effort of condemning the Oct. 7 butchery, or of articulating the principles of a “just war,” or of offering a coherent definition of what “proportionality” in the law of armed conflict actually means.

The widespread outcry against these craven institutions was encouraging: Maybe the West is finally beginning to wake up to the threats from the gathering storm clouds that grow ever darker, and ever closer.

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Il ritorno in campo di Yossi Cohen, ex capo del Mossad

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Due anni fa ha lasciato l’agenzia. Qualcuno lo vedeva come successore di Netanyahu alla guida del Likud. Sulla riforma della giustizia ha cercato di non dispiacere a nessuno. Oggi è al fianco delle famiglie degli ostaggi nelle mani di Hamas mettendo al servizio loro e di Israele i suoi contatti. Domani in politica? Chissà

Sono passati poco più di due anni da quando Yossi Cohen ha lasciato la guida del Mossad a David Barnea, allora suo vice. Di lui, diventato consulente di SoftBank dopo aver diretto l’agenzia d’intelligence israeliana focalizzata sulle operazioni all’estero, e del suo futuro si è detto molto. Perfino che sarebbe stato il candidato più forte alla guida del Likud dopo Benjamin Netanyahu, al quale è molto legato da tempo. Ma il suo articolo di luglio su Yedioth Ahronoth in cui auspicava uno stop della riforma della giustizia promossa dal primo ministro e dalla sua maggioranza di destra (l’ha definita “giusta e giustificata” ma fatta in un modo che “mette in pericolo la resistenza della sicurezza nazionale dello Stato di Israele nell’immediato”) potrebbe aver cambiato le carte in tavola. Ma non le sue ambizioni politiche. Anzi, quell’intervento è sembrato a molti un esercizio di equilibrismo di Cohen.

Nei giorni scorsi l’ex capo del Mossad ha accompagnato le famiglie degli ostaggi nelle mani di Hamas e dei dispersi negli incontri con il presidente israeliano Isaac Herzog, con il presidente statunitense Joe Biden, con il primo ministro Netanyahu e con Benny Gantz, uno dei leader dell’opposizione che è stato convolto nel gabinetto di guerra istituto dopo il 7 ottobre. Al termine dell’incontro con Herzog, Eyal Eshel, padre della diciannovenne soldatessa Roni, si è detto “più rassicurato”. Poi si è rivolto al primo ministro Netanyahu: “Signor primo ministro, lei ha arruolato le ragazze, le ha mandate nell’esercito, noi chiediamo che le riporti a casa”. Meirav, madre di Guy Gilboa-Dalal che era al festival musicale di Re’im, ha detto di aver ricevuto “sostegno emotivo” durante l’incontro e che Herzog “è un uomo rispettabile, caloroso e amorevole”. Ha aggiunto che non hanno ricevuto alcuna notizia durante l’incontro e che ciò che desidera sentire è che “mio figlio sta tornando a casa. Voglio vedere in televisione che gli ostaggi sono tornati. Svegliarmi con una notizia del genere”.

Cohen sta usando la sua rete di contatti nei Paesi arabi, in particolare in Qatar, per riportare a casa gli ostaggi. Lo stesso stanno facendo alcuni ex dirigenti dello Shin Bet, l’intelligence interna, come l’ex capo Yaakov Peri a cui si sono rivolte alcune famiglie. Oltre al loro, c’è ovviamente il lavoro del governo: in particolare di Gal Hirsch, incaricato dal premier di gestire la questione, e di Ronen Levi, nome in codice Maoz, da inizio anno direttore generale del ministero degli Esteri, dopo una trentennale carriera nello Shin Bet e al Consiglio di sicurezza nazionale, tra gli architetti degli Accordi di Abramo che hanno portato alla normalizzazione delle relazioni tra Israele e alcuni Paesi arabi.

Nei giorni scorsi Cohen aveva risposto così a una domanda di Israel Hayom sulle difficoltà di un’operazione terrestre a Gaza alla luce degli oltre 200 prigionieri. “Questo rende la missione delle Forze di difesa israeliane più complessa, ma fa parte della nostra realtà. Non negoziamo direttamente con Hamas, non lo abbiamo mai fatto. Tuttavia, diversi intermediari sono probabilmente impegnati in sforzi per il loro rilascio”, ha aggiunto. Più recentemente, a Channel 12 News, ha inviato a “non avere fretta” per l’operazione terrestre. “L’assedio di Gaza è critico ed essenziale e, prima di entrare in un’area così satura di potenziali sorprese, anche l’intelligence dovrebbe essere aggiornata. Non appena le Forze di difesa israeliane saranno chiamate a intervenire, saranno pronte con tutte le sue forze”. Inoltre, “c’è una tensione intrinseca e difficile: perché da un lato diciamo ‘preparatevi’ e l’esercito continua a prepararsi con tutti i mezzi, dall’altro non si può rinunciare ad alcune opportunità per il rilascio degli ostaggi”, ha aggiunto.

Nell’intervista a Israel Hayom, Cohen aveva anche parlato di Hamas che va “eliminata” dalla Striscia e dell’Iran “presente in tutto il conflitto”. Aveva detto di aspettarsi un’indagine sugli errori di (sotto)valutazione. E aveva elogiato coloro che, tra gli addetti ai lavori, si sono assunti le responsabilità dell’impreparazione come Aharon Haliva, capo dell’Aman, l’intelligence militare.

“La classe dirigente civile dovrebbe fare lo stesso?”, l’ultima domanda. “Dovete chiederlo a loro. Sapete come raggiungerli”, la risposta laconica che in questa fase non può non far pensare al futuro, al suo in primis ma anche a quello di una classe dirigente, quella attuale, che rischia di saltare non appena lo scenario diventerà meno imprevedibile.

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Netanyahu’s Deal With Putin Goes Wrong

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The Hamas massacres in the Israeli south that killed more than 1,400 Israeli civilians and members of the Israeli Defense Forces on October 7th constituted the worst day of violence against Jews since the Holocaust. The terrorist incursion also had the effect of undermining multiple long-standing and delicate balancing acts of regional diplomacy, which rested upon logic, predicates and assumptions that turned out to be delusional. The efficacy and wisdom of the neutrality entente between Moscow and Jerusalem, formerly a pillar of regional security arrangements, suddenly looks a lot less rational or defensible than it did to Israeli leaders before the attack.

Israel’s steadfast commitment to a doctrine of non-intervention in the wars raging in Eastern Europe and the Middle East was a key part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu’s regional security policy. The original entente reflected the conflict-averse Netanyahu’s desire to keep the Israelis out of the cauldron of the Syrian civil war. Positioning the advancing Iranian forces and their proxies at a remove from Israel’s northern border was a corollary of the deal, which stipulated that the Iranians would be prevented from operating along the Golan Heights, with the Russians acting as a defacto arbitrer of who controlled the territory adjacent to Israel.

Crucially, Moscow allowed the Israeli air force to carry out air strikes against Iranian proxies that operated in Syria, where the IDF would routinely request that Russian missile and air defence systems in Syria be temporarily powered down. The arrangement allowed Israel to stay out of a war in which saw Tehran’s proxies rampaged across Arab lands, but that augmented the power of the ring of Iranian-backed enemies that surrounds Israel. That encirclement further cemented Jerusalem’s military alliance with the Sunni Arab-bloc.

Netanyahu’s arrangement with the Russians allowed the Israeli leader to portray himself as a masterful geopolitical strategist over multiple election cycles. He had always considered his close personal relationship to Russian president Vladimir Putin to be both a political and national asset, grounded in a symbiosis of mutual respect and transactional necessity.

Yet the Netanyahu-Putin relationship had noticeably cooled over the last year-and-a-half before October 7th, for numerous reasons. While Putin genuinely respects – and somewhat fears – Israel, he has continued to balance his relationship with Netanyahu against Moscow’s commitments and alliances within the Arab world as well as with other Muslim allies. Russia’s relationships in the Middle East with powers hostile to Israel represents a direct continuation of the regional position of the Soviet Union; many of the U.S.S.R’s regional terror assets were inherited either directly or indirectly by Iran.

Nevertheless, the Israeli-Russian neutrality pact has constrained Israel from engaging more closely with or arming the Ukrainians against the Russian invasion. In turn, Israel has paid a substantive diplomatic price with numerous allies because of its neutral stance since the start of Russia’s invasion. Many people around the world (including prominent Israelis like the the ex-refusnik leader and former Israeli Cabinet minister Natan Sharansky) have viewed that arrangement as placing Israel on the wrong side of a historical conflagration. The President of Ukraine has repeatedly and fruitlessly deployed his own Jewish background in order to shame Israel into ramping up military assistance.

Yet as the war against Ukraine, which is now well past its 600th day, turned into a disastrous quagmire for Moscow, Putin has turned to his Iranian allies for assistance. While Russia’s alliance with Iran is inherently transactional, it is of ever-growing importance, sanctions have made it difficult for Moscow to procure weapons systems, munitions and microchips. The Russian-Iranian relationship therefore imposes both a new threat to Israel, and a form of commonality – and even solidarity – with Ukraine.

Ukraine and Israel are now both at war with Iran, either openly or by proxy forces that are being directly supplied, trained and commanded by Tehran. This is a fact that Ukrainian military and diplomatic officials have tried to hammer home to their Israeli counterparts over the last 19 months of the Russian invasion. The Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones that Iran first provided to the Russians in the summer of 2022 have been critically important in the drone arms race between the Ukrainians and Russians. These drones have been responsible for the deaths of many Ukrainian civilians in Odessa, Kyiv, and other cities, as well as for the crippling of numerous Ukrainian armored vehicles. The Israeli military has observed the technical capacity of the Iranian drones in the Ukrainian battle zones with great interest. The Russian-Iranian alliance has already destroyed half of all Ukrainian electrical pylons and infrastructure hubs. As a result, Ukrainian athletes now routinely refuse to shake hands with their Iranian competitors while taking part in international sporting events.

In return for drones and other support, Tehran, which continues clamouring for Russian technical assistance with its nuclear program, was proffered a certain amount of Russian diplomatic support to go with Russian upgrades on their drones. Moscow is also reported to have allowed Iran to build a massive drone factory in Russia. A great deal of discreet cooperation also takes place on the level of bypassing Western sanctions—an art that Tehran has mastered over the past forty years, and which Moscow is now learning.

Last year, Russia also promised to sell Tehran a fleet of modern Russian Su-35 attack fighter jets—a transaction that could have potentially realigned the dynamics of air power in the middle East. However that deal seems to have been halted or scuppered, and the reasons for the deal not taking place have never been publicly explained. Moscow skilfully manages to find a common language between antagonistic Arabs, Iranians and Jews, dealing with each discreetly on their own terms.

Yet because Putin had always been seen as viewing Israeli security concerns with appropriate consideration, his waffling, cagey and diffident response to the Hamas attack took many by surprise. Three days after the assault, Putin proffered his first comments on the war between Israel and Gaza amidst a conversation with the Prime Minister of Iraq. He stated that “it was a clear example of the failure of U.S. policy in the Middle East, in that the Americans had not taken the core interests of the Palestinian people into account (that is working to create an independent Palestinian state).” The statement worked on numerous registers: placating Arab audiences, reassuring the Iranians, restating Russian diplomatic commitments and snubbing the Americans for their lack of skill in executing their chosen policy in the region. In other words, a typical aperçu for the trolling strongman.

It also took the Russian President an entire week-and-a-half to call Netanyahu in order to offer his condolences. Putin reportedly did not even bother to condemn the Hamas assault during the phone call. Ukrainian President Zelensky, meanwhile, was one of the first heads of state to render a call, offering to visit Israel. When that gracious offer of solidarity was declined, Ukrainian media and commentators felt deeply insulted by the rebuff.

Helpfully for Moscow, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has now been relegated to the back pages of the newspapers, sparking arguments within the U.S. Congress about which war to prioritize. Ukrainian elites have privately voiced concern about being isolated in the wake of the attack. Indeed, the Russians have taken the opportunity to embark on a substantial counter-offensive around Avdiivka. It is a counter offensive which is going badly for them, but one which is also succeeding in attriting Ukrainian forces.

While the Russians will doubtless attempt to take full advantage of Hamas’ attack on Israel and have already benefitted greatly from it, that is not apriori evidence of their having had a hand in planning or executing the massacre. The question of who did know about the incipient assault, which surely took months of training and several years of planning, as well as significant outside technical and logistical assistance, remains unanswered.

The technical prowess that would appear to be needed to take down the billion dollar Israeli fence is necessarily either a Russian or Iranian contribution. If the American intelligence services had any early warning of what was about to transpire from active signals intelligence in Lebanon or elsewhere, it seems quite possible that the Russians may have also been offered advance notice by their Iranian allies. Moscow has also not backed Israel in the United Nations over the past weeks. After the Israeli’s destroyed the Damascus and Allepo airports last week, the Russians allowed Iranian military flights – presumably carrying supplies, arms and military advisors – to continue using a Russian military airfield in the north of the country. Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tehran for talks with his Iranian counterpart.

For the past week and a half, some Ukrainian analysts have been attempting to demonstrate the existence of a direct link between the Russians and the Hamas attack. Proof of Russian involvement in the Hamas incursion would doubtless be a world-historical event. Meanwhile, Ukrainians point to the Hamas attack as proof that Netanyahu and the Israelis badly miscalculated in their relationship with Putin, and must now change course.

“Netanyahu is guilty of expecting Putin to remain loyal to his deal with him,” the British-Ukrainian analyst Taras Kuzio complained to me. “I have always thought that the official Israeli arguments for why Israel was not aiding Ukraine – that is to avoid angering Putin in Syria – were overplayed and I find it bizarre that Netanyahu did not view the emboldening of Iran by Russia as a potential security threat to Russia. If Iran is to achieve its objective of a nuclear bomb, that would be because of Russian support.”

“Netanyahu is guilty of expecting Putin to remain loyal to his deal with him,” the British-Ukrainian analyst Taras Kuzio complained to me. “I have always thought that the official Israeli arguments for why Israel was not aiding Ukraine – that is to avoid angering Putin in Syria – were overplayed, and I find it bizarre that Netanyahu did not view the emboldening of Iran by Russia as a potential security threat to Russia.”

“If Iran is to achieve its objective of a nuclear bomb,” Kuzio continued, “that would be because of Russian support.”

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Israel at war: Hamas fires massive barrage of rockets at Tel Aviv

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Israelis are seen seeking shelter as rocket sirens sound in Tel Aviv, October 24, 2023 (photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)

Five Israelis were wounded in a massive barrage of rockets fired by Hamas from the Gaza Strip on Tuesday afternoon, Magen David Adom confirmed.

The rocket barrage, which caused sirens to sound across the entire central Israel region, sent over a million Israelis to the shelters. Five Israelis were wounded in separate incidents in Holon, Tel Aviv, Kfar Saba, Be’er Yaakov, and Yavne.

Two of the wounded were hit by rocket shrapnel, suffering respective arm and head injuries, while three others were wounded after seeking shelter.

MDA said it was looking into reports of rocket falls in the aftermath of the Hamas barrage, reportedly the largest in number aimed at Tel Aviv since the start of Operation Swords of Iron.

This is a developing story.

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More than two weeks of delay have suggested that force protection concerns have been a massive, if not decisive, factor for grand strategy.

IDF soldiers inspect the remains of a police station in Sderot, which was the site of a battle following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, on October 8. (photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

One idea being considered by the war cabinet is a ground invasion that is larger than any seen since 2014 and including 2014, but one which is still limited in how long and how deep the IDF goes into parts of Gaza, with one of the goals being to create a new northern Gaza security zone.

No one will admit this on the record, but several officials also would not deny it and there have been growing anonymous leaks about the idea.

There are a variety of upsides and downsides to this idea. The most obvious upside is fewer dead Israeli soldiers in the short term. But what are some priorities of the IDF operation?

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Israeli security forces targeted and killed three senior Hamas military officers on Tuesday, the IDF announced.

The Israeli military, directed by the Shin Bet, killed the deputy commanders of Hamas’s Shati and Sheikh Radwan battalions. Khalil Mehjez and Khalil Tetri were both killed in targeted airstrikes.

Additionally, the IDF also killed Abed al Rahman, the deputy commander of Hamas’s Nuseirat battalion, who was involved in the mass infiltration on October 7 and the massacre of civilians in kibbutz Be’eri. 

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1 Hours ago

On the eighteenth day of the war Israel struggles with the waiting phrase before an expected ground incursion; dealing with humanitarian issues and continued strikes 

Palestinians carry a child casualty at the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 24, 2023 (photo credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)

Israel continues to strike at terror sites in Gaza.

This includes northern Gaza such as near the Shati camp, Shujaiyya, Jabalia and other areas. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israel also continued to warn Gazans to remain in southern Gaza where they can access humanitarian aid. 

Israel has struck Hamas members and it will continue to do so.

Meanwhile, the IDF is preparing for the ground incursion that is expected to come. This includes preparing as many units as are needed with training refresher courses in such things as urban combat. It includes training up reservists who have flocked to their units as well. Israel called up around 300,000 people after October 7

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The IDF targeted a terrorist cell that fired anti-tank missiles at Israel from within Lebanese territory, it said on Tuesday.

The Israeli military responded to anti-tank fire directed at the northern border towns of Shutla and Menara. The IDF destroyed the weaponry used to launch the missiles, it added.

No casualties or wounded were announced.

This is a developing story.

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2 Hours ago

In a statement, the Israeli military said it contacted Gazan civilians “through various channels,” including dropping leaflets in neighborhoods across the Strip.

A copy of the leaflets dropped by the IDF for Gazans offering financial rewards for information on the hostages taken during Operation Swords of Iron (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The IDF is offering Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip safety from Hamas and cash rewards in exchange for information on the whereabouts of at least 222 Israeli hostages.

In a statement, the Israeli military said it contacted Gazan civilians “through various channels,” including dropping leaflets in neighborhoods across the Strip.

The leaflets, dropped by Israeli Air Force fighter jets, urged Gazans to contact the IDF through either widespread messaging applications such as WhatsApp, Telegram, and Signal, or through a secured line, for those in fear of repercussions by Hamas.

IDF to Gazans: We’re offering you a better future

The IDF, in Arabic, promised Gazans “the utmost effort to provide you and your loved ones safety, as well as a financial reward.

“We promise you complete anonymity,” the IDF wrote in the message to Gazans. 

“If you wish a better future for you and your children, take a stand and send us substantial information about hostages in your area.”

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2 Hours ago

“The IDF and the Southern Command are preparing high quality attack plans to achieve the goals of the war,” according to the IDF chief.

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi seen on October 11, 2023 (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

IDF Chief-of-Staff (Lt.-Gen.) Herzi Halevi on Tuesday spoke from the Southern border, saying, “I want to be clear, we are ready to invade.”

He added that the IDF is making the decision about the exact timing in coordination with the political echelon.

This second line was the loudest acknowledgment to date of criticism of the IDF and the government for delaying the counter-invasion of Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 invasion of the South.

Is Israel’s war with Hamas peaking?

Halevi said, “The State of Israel is at the height of a war which was started by the Hamas terrorist organization. It will regret it, it is starting to regret it even now.”

“IDF forces are now in the field and are defending robustly. We still need to be on the ready,” he continued.

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2 Hours ago

Three homes in the settlement located on the western edge of the Seam Line were damaged.

Iron dome anti-missile system fires interception missiles as rockets fired from the Gaza Strip to Israel, in Ashkelon on August 7, 2022. (photo credit: YONATHAN SINDEL/FLASH90)

An Israeli home was reportedly damaged after a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip fell in the northwestern West Bank settlement of Alfei Menashe on Tuesday.

Rocket sirens across central Israel and the West Bank amid a heavy rocket barrage from the Gaza Strip, with sirens sounding from Rehovot and Nes Ziona through Elad and Rosh Ha’ayin to the Sharon region, where residents of Elkana, Etz Ephraim and more were told to seek shelter.

Residents of a number of settlements in the Samaria region of the West Bank were also told to seek shelter.

No casualties were immediately reported.

Heavy rocket barrages continue in Israel’s South

Minutes later, sirens sounded across more cities and towns in central Israel, namely Yehud-Monosson and Or Yehuda. Rockets also sounded again in the southern city of Beersheba and nearby Negev towns and communities, as well as in Ashdod.

This is a developing story.

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3 Hours ago

Rocket sirens across central Israel and the West Bank on Tuesday amid a heavy rocket barrage from the Gaza Strip.

Sirens sounded from Rehovot and Nes Ziona through Elad and Rosh Ha’ayin to the Sharon region, where residents of Elkana, Etz Ephraim and more were told to seek shelter.

Residents of a number of settlements in the Samaria region of the West Bank were also told to seek shelter.

This is a developing story.

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3 Hours ago

Anti-tank fire toward the town of Shutla, near the Israel-Lebanon border, was reported by the IDF on Tuesday. No casualties or wounded were announced.

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Iran hosts Armenia-Azerbaijan talks, Russia says main issue resolved in Nagorno-Karabakh

Oct 23 (Reuters) – The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on Monday in Iran, their first talks since Azerbaijan secured control over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Russia saying the main issue had been resolved pending further work on a peace treaty.

The meeting in the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive into the disputed territory also took place against the background of rising tensions in the Middle East.

“The conflict has, on the whole, been settled. Both sides agree that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and that was the main issue to be settled,” Russia’s Tass news agency quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying in Tehran.

“Of course, practical steps remain for a full normalisation of relations, particularly preparations for a peace treaty, the demarcation of borders and the establishment of economic transport links without impediment.”

Ministers from Iran and Turkey, a key ally of Azerbaijan, also attended. A joint statement said participants agreed to respect the territorial integrity of countries in the region.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, said before the meeting that the talks represented a “historic opportunity…. The war in South Caucasus has ended, and it is time for peace and cooperation.”

“The presence of outsiders in the region will not only not solve any problems but will also complicate the situation further,” he added, without elaborating.

That was an implicit reference to the United States and the European Union, whose involvement in the search for a peace agreement has particularly annoyed Russia.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, quoted by state media, said Tehran “was ready to assist in resolving the existing disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia”.

Russia regards itself as the security guarantor between Azerbaijan and Armenia – both former Soviet republics – but the demands and distractions of its war in Ukraine have led to a weakening of its influence in the South Caucasus.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a statement posted on the X social media platform, said Ankara hoped the talks would “give impetus to normalisation and peace processes”.

In Paris, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said France was helping improve Armenia’s air defence capacity with the sale of three radars and an agreement on the future delivery of Mistral anti-air missiles.

Nagorno-Karabakh is viewed internationally as part of Azerbaijan but had been controlled by breakaway ethnic Armenians since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.

Azerbaijan’s recapture of Karabakh has prompted the exodus of most of the region’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing, while Azerbaijan said the Armenians were welcome to return.

Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan have fought two wars over three decades and have failed to seal a peace deal despite long-running efforts by the United States, EU and Russia.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting in Moscow

  • French President Emmanuel Macron visits Israel

  • Lifshitz, an Israeli grandmother who was held hostage in Gaza, speaks to members of the press after being released by Hamas militants, at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv, Israel

  • FILE PHOTO: China's Defence Minister Li Shangfu attends the 20th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore

Reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Dubai and Felix Light in Tbilisi, additional reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankaera; Editing by Ron Popeski, Gareth Jones and Jonathan Oatis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Russia, Iran strengthen ties in ‘trusting’ atmosphere -Russian foreign ministry

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shakes hands with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a meeting in Tehran, Iran October 23, 2023. Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing Rights

Oct 24 (Reuters) – Russia and Iran are firming up bilateral relations in a ‘trusting’ atmosphere, Russia’s foreign ministry said early on Tuesday after its chief, Sergei Lavrov, was received by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a visit to Tehran.

“In a traditionally trusting atmosphere, current aspects of the bilateral agenda were substantively discussed with an emphasis on further building up the entire complex of multifaceted Russian-Iranian partnership,” the foreign ministry said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

Lavrov, who went to Tehran shortly after an Asia trip to China and North Korea, discussed energy and logistics projects with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

As has been the Russian norm, few details of the talks, which took place amid the rising tensions in the Middle East, have been disclosed.

Lavrov also participated in regional talks hosted by Iran, aiming to bring peace to the South Caucasus region after Azerbaijani forces last month recaptured the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and forced thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has sought to firm up ties with countries traditionally considered Western aligned, accusing “the collective West” of trying to break up Russia.

Ukraine has urged Tehran to stop supplying deadly drones to Russia, which Kyiv says have played a major role in Moscow’s attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Iran initially denied supplying the Shahed kamikaze drones to Russia but later said it had provided a small number before Moscow launched the war.

The United States has said that it has been concerned by the “burgeoning defence partnership” between Iran and Russia, which poses risks not only to Ukraine but also to Iran’s neighbours.

Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Guerre en Ukraine, en direct : le soutien à Israël n’affectera pas l’aide à l’Ukraine, assure le chancelier allemand, Olaf Scholz

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  • « Les troupes d’occupation dans les territoires d’Ukraine temporairement occupés comptent plus de 400 000 militaires russes », a déclaré, lundi, le porte-parole des services de renseignement militaire ukrainiens, Andri Ioussov, lors d’une émission de la chaîne de télévision Kiev 24. Avec ce nombre, « il y a suffisamment de forces pour mener des opérations séparées dans certaines zones du front », a-t-il expliqué.
  • L’armée ukrainienne a dit, lundi, que les forces russes avaient lancé des attaques sur plusieurs secteurs du front oriental, notamment dans l’oblast de Donetsk – près d’Avdiïvka, de Lyman, de Bakhmout, de Marïnka – et près de Koupiansk (oblast de Kharkiv).
  • Le président turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a soumis officiellement au Parlement turc la demande d’adhésion de la Suède à l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN), après dix-sept mois de blocage, a annoncé la présidence turque. « Je salue le renvoi » du protocole d’adhésion de la Suède au Parlement turc, a déclaré le secrétaire général de l’OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, qui a dit attendre « avec impatience d’accueillir très bientôt la Suède en tant qu’alliée à part entière de l’OTAN (…), cela rendra l’ensemble de l’Alliance plus forte et plus sûre ».
  • Le ministre des affaires étrangères russe, Sergueï Lavrov, est en Iran pour des entretiens avec ses homologues régionaux. L’agence iranienne IRNA a affirmé que les ministres discuteraient des « questions relatives au Caucase du Sud », région où se situent l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie, et de la « coopération régionale ». Les réunions de ce groupe de pays ont pour objectif de « régler les problèmes de la région » ensemble « sans l’interférence de pays extrarégionaux et occidentaux », a précisé l’agence.
  • La journaliste russo-américaine Alsu Kurmasheva voit sa détention provisoire prolongée jusqu’au 5 décembre. Elle est accusée de manquements liés à son inscription au registre des « agents de l’étranger ».
  • Oleh Kiper, le gouverneur d’Odessa, a déploré lundi matin des attaques imputées aux Russes dans la région portuaire. « Des terroristes russes ont attaqué Odessa avec des drones d’attaque pendant la nuit », a-t-il déclaré dans un post sur Telegram.

Le président ukrainien a assisté par visioconférence mardi à la réunion hebdomadaire de la Commission européenne, selon des images publiées sur sa chaîne Telegram. A cette occasion, il a réaffirmé que la préparation des négociations d’adhésion de l’Ukraine à l’UE était une « priorité absolue » pour son pays.

« L’Ukraine a mis en œuvre le plus rapidement possible les sept recommandations de la Commission afin d’ouvrir les négociations d’adhésion cette année », a-t-il fait valoir dans un message publié sur Telegram. « Nous avons fait beaucoup plus que ce que l’on peut attendre d’un pays en guerre », a poursuivi le président ukrainien, espérant être entendu par les Vingt-Sept.

Pour passer à l’étape qui consiste à ouvrir des négociations d’adhésion, la Commission européenne a défini sept critères, des conditions à remplir, notamment en matière de lutte contre la corruption généralisée et de réformes judiciaires. Dans une évaluation intermédiaire en juin, la Commission a estimé que deux critères étaient remplis et que les cinq autres étaient « à un certain niveau de progrès ».

Le soutien apporté à Israël après l’attaque lancée par le Hamas ne viendra pas s’opposer à l’aide apportée à l’Ukraine, a assuré mardi le chancelier allemand, Olaf Scholz. « Nous soutenons l’Ukraine économiquement, financièrement, avec une aide humanitaire mais aussi avec des armes. Ce soutien ne sera en aucun cas affecté par le fait que, depuis les horribles heures du matin du 7 octobre, nous sommes tournés vers Israël et le Moyen-Orient avec la plus grande compassion et la plus grande inquiétude », a déclaré le chancelier allemand lors d’un forum économique germano-ukrainien à Berlin.

La Commission européenne a annoncé mardi avoir versé une aide supplémentaire de 1,5 milliard d’euros à l’Ukraine, dans un message publié sur X (anciennement Twitter). « Nous avons versé 1,5 milliard d’euros supplémentaires d’aide macrofinancière à l’Ukraine. Notre soutien à l’Ukraine s’élève à ce jour à près de 83 milliards d’euros », a-t-elle écrit.

L’Union européenne promet par ailleurs de poursuivre son soutien à Kiev. « Nous continuerons d’être aux côtés de l’Ukraine, avec une proposition de 50 milliards d’euros supplémentaires jusqu’en 2027 », fait savoir la Commission.

Le président du Comité international olympique (CIO) a estimé lundi que politiser le sport « serait très néfaste », dans une allusion directe à la Russie. Thomas Bach a lancé que le CIO suivait « de près » les tentatives de certains pays de « politiser le sport et de remplacer des compétitions sportives comme les Jeux olympiques, qui sont des jeux politiquement neutres et organisés par la société civile, par des événements organisés par le gouvernement ».

Cette déclaration survient après que le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, a assuré, la semaine dernière, que de « nouvelles formes organisationnelles et juridiques » sous forme de ligues, d’associations et de clubs devaient venir « saper le système actuel » et ainsi remplacer le « monopole » que représentent selon lui les grandes structures du sport international comme le CIO.

« C’est une annonce de la Russie. Nous suivons cela de près, bien sûr », a déclaré M. Bach, en visite à Montevideo, pour qui la « mission du sport » est « d’organiser des compétitions entre des nations qui, à un certain moment, sont politiquement amies ».

Vladimir Poutine a aussi accusé le CIO d’utiliser les Jeux comme « un instrument de pression politique » et de procéder à une « discrimination ethnique » en raison des limitations à la participation des athlètes russes aux Jeux de Paris l’an prochain. Ces accusations ont « fermement » été rejetées par le comité international, qui doit encore décider de la présence des Russes et des Biélorusses en 2024.

« Les six Shahed lancés depuis le Sud ont été détruits par les forces et les moyens des forces de défense ukrainiennes dans les régions de Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia et Mykolaïv », rapporte l’armée, citée par le gouverneur de la région de Vinnytsia, Serhi Borzov, sur Telegram.

Le ministre de l’intérieur ukrainien fait état de plusieurs attaques dans la nuit de lundi à mardi. Dans la « région de Kharkiv, vers 23 heures, l’ennemi a attaqué la localité de Borova, dans le district d’Izioum. Un immeuble de deux étages a été endommagé, quatre personnes ont été blessées et hospitalisées », a rapporté Ihor Klymenko, mardi matin sur Telegram.

Dans l’oblast de Dnipropetrovsk, « les militaires russes ont attaqué [un village] ; selon les premières informations, il n’y a pas eu de victimes », déclare M. Klymenko. La région de Donetsk a également été attaquée : « Les occupants ont bombardé le district de Kramatorsk avec des missiles S-300. Un atelier a été détruit sur le territoire d’une entreprise agricole et neuf voitures ont été endommagées », a poursuivi le ministre.

« Les forces russes ont mené des opérations offensives et ont confirmé leur avancée au nord-est d’Avdiïvka », confirme l’Institute for the Study of War. Le groupe de réflexion américain s’est appuyé sur des images géolocalisées publiées le 23 octobre. Il note ainsi, dans son rapport quotidien diffusé sur X (anciennement Twitter) que l’armée russe a avancé au sud-ouest de Krasnohorivka.

Du côté des forces ukrainiennes, l’organisation confirme des avancées au nord de Klishchiivka. « Les forces ukrainiennes ont avancé à travers la voie ferrée au nord de Klichtchiïvka » à quelque 7 km au sud-ouest de Bakhmout, affirme-t-elle.

Au cours d’un conflit qui promet de durer, l’Ukraine entame, en toute discrétion, un chapitre dont seules les démocraties connaissent le nom. Après le temps de l’union sacrée des premiers mois, celui d’un débat public et critique sur les décisions des autorités du pays est ouvert. Au sein de l’opinion et de l’armée, comme parmi les élus, des voix remettent en cause une parole officielle sur laquelle elles entendent influer.

Retrouvez l’intégralité de l’article de Jacques Follorou ci-dessous.

La Russie a affirmé avoir neutralisé trois drones navals ukrainiens en mer Noire qui semblent avoir visé la baie de Sébastopol, en Crimée annexée. Mardi, « vers 4 heures [3 heures à Paris], trois vedettes sans équipage de l’armée ukrainienne ont été détectées dans la partie nord de la mer Noire », a fait savoir le ministère de la défense russe dans un communiqué.

Des mesures antidiversion et celles visant à détecter des mines étaient en cours dans la baie de Sébastopol, port d’attache de la flotte russe de la mer Noire en Crimée, à la suite de cet incident, selon la même source.

Les attaques à l’aide de drones navals ou aériens sont courantes au large de l’Ukraine et se sont intensifiées depuis que la Russie s’est retirée, en juillet, d’un accord permettant les exportations de céréales ukrainiennes.

Deux personnes ont été tuées et quatorze autres, dont un enfant, ont été blessées lors de bombardements russes à Kherson, selon Oleksandr Prokudin, gouverneur de l’oblast de la région, qui l’a annoncé sur Telegram. « Vers 3 heures du matin, les occupants ont bombardé un village. Ils ont touché un immeuble résidentiel et quatre personnes d’une même famille ont été blessées », a-t-il précisé.

Au cours de ces dernières vingt-quatre heures, cinquante-cinq combats ont eu lieu, selon le bilan quotidien de l’état-major ukrainien. « L’armée continue de mener des opérations offensives en direction de Melitopol et a obtenu un succès partiel au sud de Robotyne », précise l’Ukraine.

Dans la nuit de lundi à mardi, les soldats russes ont lancé une attaque aérienne, en utilisant six drones d’attaque Shahed-136/131. D’après l’état-major, « l’armée de l’air a détruit tous les drones ».

Le point sur la situation ce mardi 24 octobre, à l’aube

  • « Les troupes d’occupation dans les territoires d’Ukraine temporairement occupés comptent plus de 400 000 militaires russes », a déclaré, lundi, le porte-parole des services de renseignement militaire ukrainiens, Andri Ioussov, lors d’une émission de la chaîne de télévision Kiev 24. Avec ce nombre, « il y a suffisamment de forces pour mener des opérations séparées dans certaines zones du front », a-t-il expliqué.
  • L’armée ukrainienne a dit, lundi, que les forces russes avaient lancé des attaques sur plusieurs secteurs du front oriental, notamment dans l’oblast de Donetsk – près d’Avdiïvka, de Lyman, de Bakhmout, de Marïnka – et près de Koupiansk (oblast de Kharkiv).
  • Le président turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a soumis officiellement au Parlement turc la demande d’adhésion de la Suède à l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN), après dix-sept mois de blocage, a annoncé la présidence turque. « Je salue le renvoi » du protocole d’adhésion de la Suède au Parlement turc, a déclaré le secrétaire général de l’OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, qui a dit attendre « avec impatience d’accueillir très bientôt la Suède en tant qu’alliée à part entière de l’OTAN (…), cela rendra l’ensemble de l’Alliance plus forte et plus sûre ».
  • Le ministre des affaires étrangères russe, Sergueï Lavrov, est en Iran pour des entretiens avec ses homologues régionaux. L’agence iranienne IRNA a affirmé que les ministres discuteraient des « questions relatives au Caucase du Sud », région où se situent l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie, et de la « coopération régionale ». Les réunions de ce groupe de pays ont pour objectif de « régler les problèmes de la région » ensemble « sans l’interférence de pays extrarégionaux et occidentaux », a précisé l’agence.
  • La journaliste russo-américaine Alsu Kurmasheva voit sa détention provisoire prolongée jusqu’au 5 décembre. Elle est accusée de manquements liés à son inscription au registre des « agents de l’étranger ».
  • Oleh Kiper, le gouverneur d’Odessa, a déploré lundi matin des attaques imputées aux Russes dans la région portuaire. « Des terroristes russes ont attaqué Odessa avec des drones d’attaque pendant la nuit », a-t-il déclaré dans un post sur Telegram.

Un câble de télécommunications sous-marin entre la Suède et l’Estonie a été endommagé par « une force extérieure » ou une « manipulation », a déclaré lundi le ministère de la défense suédois dans un communiqué. « Le dommage n’a pas affecté le fonctionnement du câble (…) et s’est produit dans la zone économique estonienne », ajoute le ministère.

Le 17 octobre, le gouvernement suédois avait déclaré avoir reçu des informations selon lesquelles un câble de télécommunications reliant les deux pays avait été endommagé, sans pouvoir en identifier la cause. Cet incident a eu lieu dans la même « fenêtre temporelle » que le possible sabotage du gazoduc Balticconnector, qui approvisionne la Finlande à partir de l’Estonie, et du câble de télécommunications entre ces deux pays, dans la nuit du 7 au 8 octobre, selon le gouvernement. Concernant le gazoduc, la Finlande concentre son enquête sur un navire chinois qui était sur les lieux du dommage.

« L’Estonie a signalé que des traces d’impacts physiques ont été identifiées [sur le câble]. Elle a également estimé que les dommages causés au gazoduc et au câble de communication entre la Finlande et l’Estonie sont liés aux dommages causés au câble de communication entre la Suède et l’Estonie », a précisé Carl-Oskar Bohlin, le ministre de la défense civile. Côté suédois, « le navire des forces armées suédoises HMS-Belos a été déployé sur le site pour enquêter », a relevé le ministre de la défense, Pal Jonson.

Dix pays du nord de l’Europe, dont la Finlande, la Suède et l’Estonie, ont convenu à la mi-octobre de travailler au renforcement de la surveillance de leurs infrastructures essentielles après l’arrêt du gazoduc en Finlande. L’OTAN a aussi renforcé sa présence en mer Baltique.

Il y a un ensemble « de câbles, de pipelines et d’infrastructures sur les fonds marins qui est absolument fondamental pour le transfert des données (…) et tout ce qui est contrôlé numériquement. Les vulnérabilités sont beaucoup plus importantes aujourd’hui », avait relevé le premier ministre suédois, Ulf Kristersson, lors de la rencontre entre les dix pays du nord de l’Europe.

D’après le média russe indépendant iStories, le bataillon Borz, qui appartient à la société militaire privée russe Redut, elle-même contrôlée par le ministère de la défense russe, a lancé une campagne de recrutement à destination des femmes pour des opérations sur le front ukrainien.

Les femmes recrutées par le biais d’annonces sur les réseaux sociaux se voient proposer une formation de tireuse d’élite ou d’opératrice de drone, explique iStories, dont une journaliste a contacté un recruteur en prétendant être candidate.

« Au départ, nous n’avions pas de femmes, il n’y avait que des hommes, raconte le recruteur. Nous avons maintenant décidé d’essayer d’introduire une escouade féminine de tireuses d’élite et une escouade féminine de drones, car les femmes peuvent aussi le faire. Ma tâche en tant que commandant de détachement est de prouver que les femmes ne sont pas là seulement pour faire la soupe et s’occuper des enfants. »

S’il est conseillé aux candidates d’avoir des compétences dans le maniement des armes, une formation est néanmoins prévue à Donetsk pour celles qui en ont besoin, explique le média.

En mars, le ministre de la défense russe, Sergueï Choïgou, avait déclaré que 1 100 soldates participaient à l’« opération militaire spéciale » en Ukraine. La plupart sont médecins ou cuisinières, mais Moscou a également recruté des prisonnières pour les déployer sur le champ de bataille, selon les déclarations de l’ONG russe Russia Behind Bars à iStories en mars.

« Les troupes d’occupation dans les territoires d’Ukraine temporairement occupés comptent plus de 400 000 militaires russes », a déclaré, lundi, le porte-parole des services de renseignement militaire ukrainiens, Andri Ioussov, lors d’une émission de la chaîne de télévision Kiev 24.

Avec ce nombre, « il y a suffisamment de forces pour mener des opérations séparées dans certaines zones du front », a-t-il expliqué, alors que l’armée ukrainienne a dit, lundi, que les forces russes avaient lancé des attaques dans plusieurs secteurs du front oriental, notamment dans l’oblast de Donetsk – près d’Avdiïvka, de Lyman, de Bakhmout, de Marïnka – et près de Koupiansk, dans l’oblast de Kharkiv.

607ᵉ jour de guerre en Ukraine, le point sur la situation ce soir

  • Le président turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a soumis officiellement au Parlement turc la demande d’adhésion de la Suède à l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN), après dix-sept mois de blocage, a annoncé la présidence turque.
  • Le secrétaire général de l’OTAN espère bientôt accueillir la Suède au sein de l’alliance militaire. « Je salue le renvoi » du protocole d’adhésion de la Suède au Parlement turc et « j’attends avec impatience d’accueillir très bientôt la Suède en tant qu’alliée à part entière de l’OTAN (…), cela rendra l’ensemble de l’Alliance plus forte et plus sûre », a estimé M. Stoltenberg.
  • Le ministre des affaires étrangères russe, Sergueï Lavrov, est en Iran pour des entretiens avec ses homologues régionaux. L’agence iranienne IRNA a affirmé que les ministres discuteraient des « questions relatives au Caucase du Sud », région où se situent l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie, et de la « coopération régionale ». Les réunions de ce groupe de pays ont pour objectif de « régler les problèmes de la région » ensemble « sans l’interférence de pays extrarégionaux et occidentaux », a précisé l’agence.
  • La journaliste russo-américaine Alsu Kurmasheva voit sa détention provisoire prolongée jusqu’au 5 décembre. Elle est accusée de manquements liés à son inscription au registre des « agents de l’étranger ».
  • Le ministre de l’intérieur ukrainien, Ihor Klymenko, a fait état de plusieurs attaques dans les oblasts de Donetsk, de Kherson et de Soumy dans la nuit de dimanche à lundi. La Russie « a lancé dix-neuf bombardements sur le territoire ukrainien. Huit localités ont été touchées », rapporte-t-il dans un post publié sur la messagerie Telegram.
  • Oleh Kiper, le gouverneur d’Odessa, a déploré lundi matin des attaques imputées aux Russes dans la région portuaire. « Des terroristes russes ont attaqué Odessa avec des drones pendant la nuit », a-t-il déclaré dans un post Telegram.

Les Russes exilés en Europe doivent être sur leurs gardes, car les voix critiques du Kremlin et de la guerre contre l’Ukraine sont désormais des « cibles », avertit le romancier dissident Sergueï Lebedev. « Cette communauté d’émigrés en Europe est désormais l’une des cibles les plus importantes pour les services de sécurité russes », a assuré l’auteur de 42 ans dans un entretien à l’Agence France-Presse à l’occasion de la Foire du livre de Francfort, en Allemagne. « Il y aura des tentatives d’infiltration, des informateurs, et, bien sûr, des tentatives d’assassinat », prédit celui qui est installé en Allemagne avec sa femme depuis cinq ans.

L’Allemagne est une « plaque tournante » pour les Russes en exil, souligne l’écrivain, qui prend des précautions supplémentaires, depuis le début de la guerre, lorsqu’il échange des informations jugées sensibles. Et il appelle ses compatriotes à faire de même : les Russes d’Europe ne prennent pas la menace suffisamment au sérieux, selon lui. « Ils ne se sentent pas très concernés par la sécurité. »

Le secrétaire général de l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN) espère bientôt accueillir la Suède au sein de l’alliance militaire. « Je salue le renvoi » du protocole d’adhésion de la Suède au Parlement turc et « j’attends avec impatience d’accueillir très bientôt la Suède en tant qu’allié à part entière de l’OTAN (…), cela rendra l’ensemble de l’Alliance plus forte et plus sûre », a estimé M. Stoltenberg.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan avait promis en juillet lors d’un sommet de l’OTAN de soumettre ce texte aux élus turcs le 1er octobre, à la reprise des travaux parlementaires, après s’y être opposé pendant des mois, reprochant à la Suède d’abriter des ressortissants kurdes considérés comme « terroristes ». Toutefois, depuis la réouverture du Parlement, des représentants turcs ont continué de répéter que Stockholm devait prendre davantage de mesures pour lutter contre le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK), déclaré illégal par Ankara, afin que l’adhésion soit ratifiée.

Via le réseau social X, la présidence turque a fait savoir que le protocole sur l’adhésion de la Suède à l’OTAN a été signé par M. Erdogan et soumis au Parlement. Mais elle n’a pas donné de détails : aucune date n’a été fixée pour un vote du Parlement. Le texte doit dans un premier temps être ajouté au programme de la commission parlementaire des affaires étrangères, laquelle doit donner un aval préalable à un vote en session plénière.

En effet, mais l’attitude de la Hongrie est source d’inquiétude pour les partenaires occidentaux. Les ambassadeurs des pays de l’OTAN dans ce pays se sont réunis jeudi à Budapest, à l’initiative du représentant américain, pour évoquer les liens que maintient la Hongrie avec la Russie malgré la guerre en Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg s’était auparavant entretenu avec Viktor Orban pour lui rappeler l’importance du soutien à l’Ukraine, et il a aussi abordé la question de l’adhésion de la Suède à l’OTAN.

Fin septembre, Viktor Orban avait estimé devant le parlement hongrois qu’il n’y avait pas d’urgence à ratifier l’adhésion de la Suède à l’OTAN : « Je me demande s’il y a quelque chose d’urgent qui nous forcerait à ratifier la candidature de la Suède. Je ne vois pas de telles circonstances. » En outre, Budapest appelle Stockholm à cesser sa politique de « dénigrement » et ses remarques régulières sur les manquements à l’Etat de droit de l’exécutif Orban.

Le premier ministre suédois, Ulf Kristersson, a déclaré que son pays avait hâte de devenir membre de l’OTAN après que Recep Tayyip Erdogan a annoncé que son bureau avait soumis un protocole pour l’admission de la Suède dans l’OTAN au Parlement turc pour ratification. Il s’en est félicité sur X (ex-Twitter).

Le président Erdogan avait levé en juillet son veto à l’adhésion de la Suède à l’Alliance atlantique, précisant toutefois que la ratification dépendrait du parlement turc, qui a repris ses travaux le 1er octobre après leur suspension estivale.

M. Erdogan, qui s’est entretenu samedi par téléphone avec le secrétaire général de l’OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, a continué depuis l’été de mettre la pression sur la Suède pour qu’elle prenne des mesures contre les profanations de Coran qui ont envenimé les relations entre les deux pays.

Ankara reproche en parallèle aux autorités suédoises leur mansuétude présumée envers les militants kurdes réfugiés sur leur sol et réclame l’extradition de dizaines d’entre eux. La Turquie est avec la Hongrie le dernier des trente et un Etats membres de l’OTAN à ne pas avoir ratifié l’adhésion de la Suède. Ankara avait validé l’entrée de la Finlande le 30 mars dernier, dissociant son cas de celui de Stockholm.

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Kremlin: Putin is alive and well, not using body doubles

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The Kremlin on Tuesday rejected speculation about President Vladimir Putin‘s health, saying he was fit and well.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in a regular call with reporters, also denied suggestions that the president was using body doubles, calling that an “absurd hoax.”

Reporters asked Peskov about Putin’s health following an unsourced report by a Russian Telegram channel, picked up by some Western media, that the president had suffered a serious health episode on Sunday evening.

Putin, a judo enthusiast who has long cultivated an “action man” image, turned 71 on Oct. 7. He maintains an intensive schedule of meetings and public appearances, many of them televised.

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 18, 2023. (credit: Sputnik/Sergei Guneev/Pool via REUTERS)

Putin: I am healthy, I do not use body doubles. 

His recent program included a visit to China last week, with stop-offs in two Russian cities on the way back.

In a 2020 interview, Putin denied longstanding rumors that he uses body doubles, although he said he had been offered the chance to use one in the past for security reasons.

In April this year, Peskov said talk of body doubles was “yet another lie” and that Putin was in enviable health.

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Germany’s Scholz in Egypt to discuss Israel-Hamas war – DW – 10/18/2023

10/18/2023October 18, 2023

The German chancellor expressed support for Egypt’s efforts to mediate in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Egypt on Wednesday to discuss the situation in Israel and Gaza with President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi.

Scholz said he wanted to support Egypt’s efforts to mediate in the conflict and discussed opening a humanitarian corridor to Gaza as quickly as possible.

“Together with Egypt, we want to work to alleviate the terrible consequences of the war,” the German chancellor said.

El-Sissi said that Egypt did not close the Rafah border crossing, which aid convoys have not been able to cross in days.

Before heading to Egypt, Scholz visited Israel in a show of solidarity after the October 7 terror attack by Hamas, the Islamist militant group that rules Gaza. Hamas is deemed a terrorist group by Germany, the United States, the European Union and several Arab states.

Scholz pledges help in freeing hostages

After meeting with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, Scholz pledged to help free hostages who were kidnapped by Hamas as well as to help humanitarian aid reach Palestinians in Gaza.

Several German citizens are among the foreign nationals being held hostage by Hamas. Scholz met with some of their families while in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. 

Scholz also backed efforts by Egypt to mediate in the conflict.

“Together with Egypt, we want to work to alleviate the terrible consequences of the war,” the German chancellor said.

Yellow ambulances assemble near Rafah border in EgyptAid vehicles waiting near the Egypt-Gaza borderImage: REUTERS

Egypt’s border crossing with Gaza

El-Sissi said Egypt did not close the Rafah border crossing with Gaza, where aid convoys have been held up for days, and instead said it was not operating due to being bombarded.

The Egyptian president also said he did not want to see Palestinians expelled from Gaza to the Sinai Peninsula, which he said would then be turned into a launching ground for “terrorist attacks” against Israel.

“We are rejecting the liquidation of the Palestinian cause and the expulsion of Palestinians to Sinai,” el-Sissi added. 

zc/wmr (Reuters, AFP, epd, KNA)

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Here’s how Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ stops rockets — and why Ukraine doesn’t have it

Some of the ways in which Hamas initially attacked Israel over the weekend — taking down communication towers with improvised explosives, paragliding over the border and gunning down civilians — subverted one of Israel’s strongest defenses: its Iron Dome.

First deployed in 2011, the Iron Dome is a network of radar detectors and missile launchers that work together to intercept incoming rockets.

The highly sophisticated, multibillion-dollar defense system has been under constant redevelopment since its inception in the early 2000s.

Here’s how it works, who funds it and why we don’t see it in other parts of the world.

The Iron Dome missile launchers are mobile and can be moved into positions around the country.

The Iron Dome missile launchers are mobile and can be moved into positions around Israel.

How does it work?

The Iron Dome is a mobile air defense system designed to protect against short-range rockets. It was conceived in the early 2000s and became operational in 2011.

Three parts make it work, says Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

First, there’s the radar. When a rocket is launched into Israel, the system detects it and collects data on its flight path.

Second, that information is sent to a computer that calculates where that rocket is going.

“For rockets and artillery, for ballistic missiles, it’s pretty predictable. So if you see something traveling on a particular arc, you kind of know where it’s going to be going on the rest of its trajectory. You also know where it’s going to end up,” Karako told NPR.

Third, if the system calculates that the rocket is going to land in a populated area or a place of strategic importance, it activates the last piece of the system — the launcher — which fires Tamir interceptors to collide with the rocket midair.

“If a rocket’s going off course and is just going to land in the Negev desert, they’re just going to let that one go,” Karako explained.

The system is expensive — each missile it launches costs about $40,000 to $50,000 — and the U.S. has poured billions of dollars into its development and maintenance (more on that in a moment).

What has happened since the weekend?

More than 5,000 rockets have been launched into Israel since the attacks from Hamas began Saturday, according to the Israeli military, which says the Iron Dome successfully neutralized most of them.

In the past, the Israel Defense Forces has said the Iron Dome’s success rate is about 90% to 97% in its capacity to seek out and protect civilians from incoming weapons.

And as Karako explains, the aim of the Iron Dome isn’t necessarily perfection.

“The Iron Dome, in particular, is kind of the poster child for the ‘good enough’ high success rate,” he said.

“Their approach to acquisition has been not the most exquisite and most expensive interceptor, for the perfect interceptor rate — but rather, large quantities of interceptors that are lower cost and good enough to get after the threats.”

Where did the Iron Dome come from?

Development for the Iron Dome began in Israel in 2006, in response to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

The project was spearheaded by RAFAEL Advanced Defense Systems, a state-run defense firm that would spend the next five years fine-tuning the technology. The U.S. has invested nearly $3 billion into its launchers, interceptors and general maintenance, according to a Congressional Research Service report.

An Israeli missile is launched from the Iron Dome on October 10.

An Israeli missile is launched from the Iron Dome on Oct. 10.

And there is likely more U.S. aid in the pipeline, with President Biden saying on Tuesday that the federal government is “surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome.”

In addition to Biden’s pledge, a group of U.S. lawmakers in the House introduced a bipartisan bill this week that would appropriate an additional $2 billion to help bolster the Iron Dome.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., said the move would be “critical to increasing American security assistance for Israel’s missile defense system, which is saving millions of innocent lives.”

Is it used elsewhere, like Ukraine?

Thanks in part to the investment and collaboration with Israel on the Iron Dome, the U.S. has two Iron Dome batteries.

The Ukrainian government has made a number of requests for Israeli-made defense systems — including the Iron Dome — since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Israeli Knesset in March 2022, stating: “Everyone in Israel knows that your missile defense is the best … and you can definitely help us protect our lives, the lives of Ukrainians, the lives of Ukrainian Jews.”

Yet in June of this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that Israel would not be sharing technology or insight on its missile defense system with Ukraine, citing concerns that “if that system were to fall in the hands of Iran, then millions of Israelis would be left defenseless and imperiled.”

But Karako says Israel’s exclusive use of this technology could change.

“There are other countries in Europe and elsewhere in the world that are certainly looking at this … for its relatively lower cost, for its sooner availability and for its proven record.”

Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.