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Putin’s tea taunt for Biden over claim Russia has lost Ukraine war

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US war against Russia and China is nonsense talk, says Putin

October 16 2023, 12.10pm

Marc Bennetts

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Gavin Blair

, Tokyo

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Israel-Hamas War: Biden Affirms Evidence Backing Israel’s Denial of Causing Hospital Blast

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President Biden also appeared to have secured Israel’s agreement to allow food, water and medicine for civilians to enter Gaza via Egypt.

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Will Falcon be Egypt’s Wagner?

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Threads are joining in Egypt, towards formulating new roles, which may be suspicious, for a major security company, with ties to the government, security and intelligence departments, amid great fears that dirty and secret tasks will be assigned to it in the coming period.

Questions have arisen about the nature of the tasks of the Falcon Security and Guarding Group, which explicitly announced its participation in the campaign to support and secure a third presidential term for the current president, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.

There are even more questions due to the ambiguity surrounding the company’s activities, working mechanisms, formations, financial accounts, the tasks assigned to it and the nature of those responsible for its management.

Rising role

The security group (which includes seven companies) is not new. It was established in 2006, but its role escalated after the military coup on 3 July 2013, which was carried out by Al-Sisi, who was the minister of defence at the time.

The group played a prominent role in suppressing Egyptian university demonstrations against the coup, and arresting hundreds of students, in addition to its role in securing public facilities, airports, clubs, foreign embassies, prominent officials and political, sporting and art events.

The company is considered the largest in the security field, with contracts totalling over two billion Egyptian pounds (about $65 million), and the most influential, given that a large number of retired army, intelligence and police generals and officers hold senior positions in it. The Chairman of the Board of Directors is former Undersecretary of the Intelligence Service, General Khaled Sharif.

According to an informed source who spoke to Middle East Monitor on condition of anonymity, the company is not listed on the stock exchange, is not subject to any financial or legal oversight and the extent or nature of its activities is not known.

According to the company’s website, Falcon’s services include facility protection, personal protection, rapid support and intervention, security consultations, public event security, industrial security, women’s security, guard dogs, and occupational safety and health training.

Pivotal situations

A more in-depth reading reveals four pivotal situations that are the most prominent in the company’s history. The first is the announcement in August 2014 of the launch of the “Rapid Support and Intervention Sector” under the pretext of confronting security chaos and riots, tasks originally entrusted to the Ministry of Interior. This means that there is a private security apparatus parallel to the police, in addition to granting it a licence allowing it to use weapons, according to Egyptian newspaper Al-Shorouk.

Having the right to deploy rapid intervention forces allows Falcon to deploy armed groups, vehicles and motorcycles at targeted security points, in addition to planting tracking, spying and surveillance devices.

The second pivotal situation relates to providing legal cover for the company, through the issuance of Law 86 of 2015 regarding facilities guarding and money transfer companies, which allowed them to obtain licences for several activities.

In December 2016, the controversial group took a third pivotal step, but this time on an international dimension, by establishing security partnerships with Russian, American and British companies, the most important of which was signing a contract with STC, to become the sole commercial agent of the Russian company in Egypt.

Suspicious deal

However, the fourth pivotal measure is considered the most prominent and influential in the group’s history, which is the sale of the company to Sabri Nakhnoukh, who was previously convicted of serious crimes, and who in May 2018 received a presidential pardon from Al-Sisi from his 28-year prison sentence on charges of bullying and the possession of weapons and drugs.

Egyptian Law number 86 of 2015 regarding companies guarding facilities and transferring funds stipulates that “the heads and members of security companies must not have previously been charged with a felony or misdemeanour and sentence with the deprivation of liberty, or a crime against honour or trust, unless they have been rehabilitated.”

Nakhnoukh has been labelled with many titles, such as Prince of Thugs, President of the Republic of Thugs, and Parallel Minister of the Interior, according to Monte Carlo Doualiya radio, which titled its coverage of the deal as “Sabri Nakhnoukh, President of the Republic of Thugs, has Become the Owner and Director of Falcon Group the biggest security company in Egypt.”

READ: Al-Sisi’s stark warning to Egyptian voters: it’s either me or chaos

Nakhnoukh owned offices to supply thugs, drugs and weapons in the capital, Cairo, and had previously been used to sabotage public facilities and prisons during the 25 January 2011, revolution in order to spread panic across Egyptian streets.

What made the deal more suspicion was the fact that the group, whose holds more than a 60 per cent share of the guarding and security service market in Egypt, was sold for just three million pounds (about $97,000) in addition to assuming the company’s debt of 120 million pounds (about $3.9 million).

Wagner’s Egyptianisation

The deal is becoming very dangerous, with the issuance of controversial statements by Al-Sisi about the possibility of destroying Egypt and spreading chaos in the country. He said a few days ago: “I can give a sheet of Tramadol (a narcotic substance) and 1,000 pounds (about $32) to 100,000 people whose circumstances are difficult and send them out for 10 weeks to create a situation. I can destroy the country with a billion pounds ($32 million).”

The picture becomes complete once these circumstances and statements are analysed in a manner that puts Egypt in front of a new model based on the Egyptianisation and cloning of the Russian Wagner group, which includes thousands of mercenaries and carries out dirty operations in various regions around the world.

Political expert Hamdi Al-Masry considered Nakhnoukh’s assumption of the presidency of the company a qualitative development in its security and political work, raising real concerns in the coming period. After the company’s recruits had been retirees from the army and workers with high security specifications and standards, those who join later will be thugs. They will secure voting centres in the upcoming presidential elections, paving the way for violent incidents against those suspected of voting for any candidate opposed to Al-Sisi.

Al-Masry noted that this task in the elections will be part of a broader right to deploy rapid intervention forces and armed groups at focal points under the pretext of confronting terrorism in coordination with the Ministry of Interior. This means that it will be an alternative to the regular security forces in confronting demonstrations and may commit human rights violations. This exempts the Egyptian ministry from any legal and international responsibility and criticism from abroad.

Al-Masry added that the development of the company’s activities and the nature of the recruitment of its members raises real fears of the emergence of an Egyptian version of the Russian Wagner Group in Egyptian cities, which may draw the attention of the UAE to assign foreign missions to it after the decline in the capacity of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan to provide mercenaries for such missions, after its conflict with the Sudanese army.

It is worrying that the Emirati arm is actually present behind the scenes, with Alpha Oryx Limited, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, acquiring 25 per cent of the shares of Commercial International Bank (CIB), the bank that owns Falcon, in addition to other partners.

Legitimising bullying

Without a doubt, Egypt now faces a very influential company with close ties to the security and military institutions in the country, and it may at some point operate as a parallel security apparatus, or militias that are supported and funded by Gulf parties such as the UAE to implement an external agenda if required.

An Egyptian political analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous, described assigning the company’s presidency to Nakhnoukh as “a means to legitimise thuggery and provide an official entity through which the thugs operate.” The official warned that the step is an indication of the expansion of Falcon’s role to carry out work to support the ruling regime in the future if the situation collapses or the official authorities stand against Al-Sisi.

Observers believe that Nakhnoukh is merely a front for the Egyptian version of Wagner, and that sovereign agencies are the ones who actually manage the group (the number of its members remains unknown), amid unofficial estimates that it has no less than 100,000 members.

The well-known diplomat, Mohamed Morsy, the former Egyptian ambassador to Doha, warned in a Facebook post that “the timing of Falcon’s sale to Nakhnoukh is inappropriate, and raises the idea, concept, and beginnings of forming private militias with different names, forms, and circumstances. Control over them may be lost as well as the tasks for which they were formed.”

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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“Imagery, Intercepts” Show Israel Not Behind Gaza Hospital Strike, Says US

'Imagery, Intercepts' Show Israel Not Behind Gaza Hospital Strike, Says US

Nearly 500 people were killed in the explosion.

Washington:

US intelligence shows Israel was not to blame for a strike on a Gaza hospital, the White House said Wednesday, as President Joe Biden said it appeared to be the result of a misfired rocket fired by a “terrorist group”.

Biden has backed Israel’s insistence that it did not carry out Tuesday’s hospital strike that killed several hundred people. The Palestinian group Hamas says Israel was responsible.

“While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said on social media.

The US intelligence included satellite and infrared data showing the launch of a projectile from the positions inside Gaza, the New York Times reported, citing US officials.

Israeli officials had supplied Washington with intercepted communications between Hamas officials, while US intelligence had also looked at open source video of the launch, it said.

Biden, in Tel Aviv during a short visit to show solidarity to Israel after the October 7 Hamas attacks, told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu it seemed the strike was “done by the other team”.

The US president later gave a firmer attribution of blame, saying that “based on the information we’ve seen to date, it appears as a result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza.”

He said the assessment relied on “data I was shown by my defense department.”

There was no immediate comment from the Pentagon.

The hospital strike killed 471 people, according to Gaza’s Hamas-controlled health ministry, and has sparked anger across the Arab and Muslim world.

Hamas said after the explosion on Tuesday that the cause was an Israeli air strike.

Israel has said the Islamic Jihad group had caused the explosion with a misfired rocket.

Israel has been carrying out a campaign of air and artillery strikes on Gaza since the Hamas attack when some 1,400 people were shot, stabbed or burnt to death, and 199 taken hostage.

Gaza health officials say more than 3,400 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on the enclave since the.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Israel-Hamas war: US says ‘analysis of imagery and intercepts’ shows Israelis not behind Gaza hospital blast

US officials investigating the explosion at a hospital in Gaza say information gathered so far indicates Israel is “not responsible” for the blast.

The White House National Security Council (NSC) says the “current assessment” was based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information.

“While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told NBC News.

It comes after Joe Biden said the explosion at the al Ahli hospital – which Hamas officials claimed killed hundreds of people and was caused by an Israeli air strike – appeared not to have been caused by Israel but “by the other team”.

Follow live: Middle East enters ‘dangerous moment’

A view shows an area of al Ahli hospital where hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a blast that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other, and where Palestinians who fled their homes were sheltering amid the ongoing conflict with Israel, in Gaza City, October 18, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Masri TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Image: The aftermath of the explosion at the al Ahli hospital in Gaza

The US president was speaking during a high-risk diplomatic mission to Israel – a day after the blast stoked tensions and sparked protest in the region.

Mr Biden held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Wednesday – trying to prevent the Israel-Hamas war from spiralling into a broader regional conflict.

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Explosion at a hospital in Gaza City 0:26

Gaza City hospital blast caught on camera

“Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you,” Mr Biden said.

“But there’s a lot of people out there who are not sure, so we have got to overcome a lot of things.”

“The world is looking. Israel has a value set like the United States does, and other democracies, and they are looking to see what we are going to do,” he added.

Mr Biden said he was “sad and outraged” by the strike in Gaza which Hamas said killed up to 500 people at the al Ahli hospital – triggering worldwide protests.

US President Joe Biden with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel

Image: US President Joe Biden with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv

Hamas called the explosion a “crime of genocide” and has blamed it on Israel.

Israel has denied any involvement and said the blast was caused by a misfired rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group – an Islamist militant group based in Gaza which is smaller than Hamas but shares a similar ideology.

However, it too has rejected responsibility for the explosion.

UK intelligence also assessing explosion

Rishi Sunak, meanwhile, urged for a “calm and cool” approach in response to the blast and urged people: “Don’t rush to premature judgments.”

He told broadcasters: “It is important in this instance not to jump to conclusions, we have to establish the facts and premature speculation, I think, would be wrong, that’s not the right thing.

“This is a very heightened, sensitive situation, so we just need calm heads.”

Mr Sunak said UK intelligence was also assessing the explosion at the hospital.

The blast happened just before the US president arrived in Israel on Wednesday on a desperate diplomatic mission to prevent the Israel-Hamas war from spiralling into a broader regional conflict.

What we know about the al Ahli hospital blast

A protestor hurls stones at a burning building just outside the US Embassy in Lebanon following the bombing of the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza  Pic:DPA/AP

Image: A protester throws stones at a burning building outside the US embassy in Lebanon following the bombing of a Gaza hospital. Pic: DPA/AP

He said Washington would provide Israel with everything it needs to defend itself against the militant faction of Hamas.

In a press conference, he reiterated his government’s support for Israel and warned other pro-Hamas groups and nations in the region to stay out of the conflict.

He said: “My message to any state, or any other hostile actor, thinking about attacking Israel remains what it was a week ago: ‘Don’t, don’t, don’t’.”

Mr Biden also pledged $100m of new US funding for humanitarian aid to Gaza and the West Bank and said an agreement had been reached to allow aid to come into the Gaza Strip from Egypt.

Mr Netanyahu thanked his US counterpart for his “unequivocal support”.

The US leader is in Tel Aviv to show Israel the US’s support for its war against Hamas.

However, the second half of his visit to the Middle East – a summit between himself and Palestinian, Jordanian and Egyptian leaders in Amman, which would have focused on getting humanitarian assistance into Gaza while working towards calming tensions in the region – was cancelled following the bombing.

Read more:
Number of displaced in Gaza reaches new high
Rishi Sunak could visit Israel as soon as Thursday

The fireball that engulfed the hospital delivered some of the most harrowing images yet from the ongoing 12-day war.

About 350 casualties were rushed from the blast site to Gaza City’s main hospital, al Shifa, already overwhelmed with those injured from other strikes, said its director, Mohammed Abu Selmia.

Israel’s military released what it claimed was evidence – including drone footage and an intercepted conversation – which it said proves an Islamist militant group was responsible for the bombing and not an Israeli airstrike.

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It has not been possible to independently verify the audio recording published by the Israeli military of “communication between terrorists talking about rockets misfiring”.

It is the deadliest single event of the Israel-Hamas war so far.

After Mr Biden backed the Israeli account, other western leaders also called for caution.

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A man stands next to a damaged car in the area of al Ahli hospital where hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a blast that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other, and where Palestinians who fled their homes were sheltering amid the ongoing conflict with Israel, in Gaza City, October 18, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Masri 1:14

IDF release ‘hospital attack audio’

“Last night, too many jumped to conclusions around the tragic loss of life at Al Ahli hospital,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“Getting this wrong would put even more lives at risk. Wait for the facts, report them clearly and accurately.

“Cool heads must prevail,” he added.

Protests have ignited across the Middle East following the explosion, with hundreds of people taking to the streets in cities in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and in the West Bank – where there have been clashes with police.

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WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Says Intelligence Shows Gaza Militants Behind Hospital Blast

Deadly blast provokes protests, anger in Middle East and complicates Biden’s visit

Part of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital compound on Wednesday, following the explosion a day earlier.Part of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital compound on Wednesday, following the explosion a day earlier. Abed Khaled/Associated Press

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Israel Latest: Biden Says Pentagon Showed Him Blast Evidence

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(Bloomberg) — US President Joe Biden said he’d been shown evidence by the Pentagon suggesting Israel wasn’t responsible for the deadly blast at a Gaza City hospital on Tuesday night that killed hundreds and threatened to plunge the region into chaos.

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“Based on what I’ve seen, that appears as though it was done by the other team,” Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly after landing in Tel Aviv. The attack will complicate US efforts to contain the conflict. Israel and Hamas — designated a terrorist group by the US and Europe — traded blame for the attack.

Iran, meanwhile, called for an embargo against Israel by Muslim countries. Visiting Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin, under international sanctions for the war on Ukraine, said the blast was a sign the war should end as soon as possible.

Biden Says Pentagon Has Evidence Of Israeli Innocence (4:05 p.m.)

Joe Biden told reporters he was shown evidence by the Pentagon that Israel was not behind the explosion at a Gaza City hospital. He spoke hours after telling Benjamin Netanyahu that he believed Tuesday’s blast was likely the fault of the “other team, not you.”

Biden spoke to reporters Wednesday as he met with first responders and survivors of the Hamas-led raid on Israel on Oct. 7.

Participants included a 25-year old woman who helped organize the defense of her kibbutz, a grandmother held hostage for nearly a full day, and a family that narrowly survived an attack on their home. Others at the session included a doctor and emergency medic who have treated both Israelis and Palestinians injured in the conflict.

To hear a discussion on Biden’s options, click here.

US Sanctions Individuals Linked to Hamas (3:35 p.m.)

The US sanctioned several individuals associated with Hamas’ investment portfolio as well as two senior members of the organization’s leadership, in a move designed to limit its ability to raise funds.

Six of the sanctioned individuals are accused of running an investment portfolio worth hundreds of millions of dollars, with companies in Turkey, Algeria, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. The network uses front companies to disguise its activities and generates revenue used to support senior Hamas officials, allowing them to live in luxury, the US Treasury Department said in a statement Wednesday.

EU-North Africa Trade Meeting Canceled Amid Tensions (2:50 p.m.)

A meeting of trade ministers of the European Union for the Mediterranean scheduled for Thursday in Valencia, Spain, was canceled at the last minute due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, people familiar with the matter said.

Besides the 27 EU member states, 16 Mediterranean countries are members of the arrangement, including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and the Palestinian areas.

Oil Jumps, US Equity Futures Fall (2:20 p.m.)

Crude prices jumped more than 3% and stocks tumbled globally as investors responded to Iran’s call for an oil embargo. S&P 500 futures contracts lost 0.5%, while gold prices rose on haven demand.

United Airlines Holdings Inc. led a slump among airlines after warning of the potential blow to earnings from the suspension of flights to Tel Aviv.

“The risks of an escalation have risen on the back of the latest news reports regarding the hospital bombing,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank. “On any clear escalation, we can expect to see a ratcheting up of risk aversion.”

UN Says ‘Catastrophe’ Unfolding in Gaza (2:17 p.m.)

Gaza is on the brink of a major health and sanitary crisis with stocks of food and medicine rapidly dwindling, said Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.

“An unprecedented catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes. Gaza is being strangled and the world seems to have lost its humanity,” Lazzarini said in his statement during the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit.

He said the agency was short of $100 million of core budget this year and an initial appeal for $104 million in immediate emergency response funding for more than a million displaced people will likely soon be revised upwards.

Sunak: No ‘Rush to Judgement’ on Blast (2 p.m.)

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak cautioned “not to rush to judgment before we have all the facts” about the hospital blast in Gaza. He told Parliament that British intelligence has been analyzing the evidence available. Opposition leader Keir Starmer urged the government to ensure medicine, fuel, food, water and humanitarian aid can enter the region “immediately.”

Foreign Secretary James Cleverly plans to return to Middle East later this week, UK officials said, including a trip to Egypt to discuss opening the Rafah crossing. Sunak is set to visit Israel as soon as Thursday, Sky News reported, although the prime minister’s office has declined to confirm a possible trip.

Putin Says Conflict Should Be Ended (1:30 p.m.)

The blast at the hospital in Gaza should be a signal for the conflict to be stopped as soon as possible, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters in Beijing, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and attended a forum marking 10 years of the country’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Putin said that after talks with the leaders of five Middle East states this week, he is “under the impression that no one wants to continue the conflict” or for it “to turn it into a large-scale war.”

Putin, who is under international sanctions for Russia’s war on Ukraine, spoke on Monday with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, Palestinian Authority Leader Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Iran Calls for Oil Embargo Against Israel (12:20 p.m.)

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian called for imposing an oil embargo against Israel, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s official Telegram channel.

Speaking ahead of an emergency meeting of Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries over the Israel-Hamas conflict, Amirabdollahian also called on Muslim nations to “fully and immediately boycott” Israel and expel its ambassadors.

Oil prices surged after the comments. Still, Israel is a small importer. And while other Middle Eastern energy producers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have criticized Israel for its strikes on Gaza, they’ve not talked of halting sales to it or any of its allies.

Higher UK Domestic Terror Threat (12:00 p.m.)

The head of Britain’s domestic spy agency warned the current conflict in Israel and the Palestinian territories increases the nation’s terror risk, as he singled out Iran as a cause for concern.

“There clearly is the possibility that profound events in the Middle East will either generate more volume of UK threat and/or change its shape in terms of what is being targeted, in terms of how people are taking inspiration,” Ken McCallum, MI5 director general, told media in the US on Wednesday. His office confirmed the remarks.

Egypt Rejects Attempt to Move Palestinians (10:20 a.m.)

Moving Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula could lead to that territory being used as a base for operations against Israel, Egypt’s El-Sisi said Wednesday. At a joint press conference with Germany’s chancellor, El-Sisi suggested Palestinians could be relocated to Israel’s Negev Desert until the end of the fighting.

Germany’s Scholz said his country and Egypt are “united in their goal of preventing a conflagration in the Middle East” and reiterated a warning to Iran and Hezbollah that it would be a “grave mistake” for them to intervene.

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The Games Putin Plays

The Games Putin Plays

The start of the Gaza War on 10.7.23 is attributed by many observers to the Russian Wagner Group. The same can be said about the later attack on the al Ahli Arab Hospital. It appears to be their style, as in Ukraine, Syria, etc. The timing to the events around Putin was also noted. This Hypothesis has to be carefully investigated, and its significance and possible implications should be clear to all the players. 

“Collective Punishment” is not the solution. The punishment should be directed at the individuals on all levels who are directly involved and who are responsible for these crimes, as determined by the proper investigations. And we are not at this point yet. 

Michael Novakhov | 10:09 AM 10/18/2023 

Putin's dangerous mind games | The Seattle Times
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Opinion | The Games Putin Plays (Published 2014)

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The events in Ukraine offer a lesson in the limits of Russia’s grand strategy.

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Why is Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries in Sudan?

Experts claim that the Wagner Group is in Sudan to provide Russia with access to resources and help it fund the war in Ukraine.

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Russia’s Wagner Group has been present in Sudan since 2017. And amid the unfolding power struggle in the country, some have expressed fears that the mercenary group is fuelling the conflict and possibly acting on behalf of the Kremlin.

“It’s so striking that anywhere there is instability or an attack on democracy in Africa, that Wagner group is involved and more often than not they are on the side of the militia,” said Emmanuel Kotin, a security expert and executive director of the Africa Centre for Security and Counterterrorism think tank.

“Look at Burkina Faso, for instance, all of the country’s mines are taken over by proxies of the Wagner group. The same thing that is happening in Sudan and in Mali,” he added. 

According to a number of international investigations, the Wagner Group’s goal in Sudan is to provide Moscow access to resources, which, Russia then uses to finance the war in Ukraine. One of its main objectives is acquiring gold, as Sudan is the third largest producer of the mineral in Africa.

Who is the Wagner Group working for in Sudan?

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime [GI-TOC] estimates that the Wagner group’s structures are deeply embedded in Sudan and the neighbouring Central African Republic, developing significant political influence, extensive commercial interests and a mercenary role. GI-TOC notes that “the main objective of the Russians in Sudan is not to protect the Khartoum political power, but essentially to benefit immensely from the country’s mineral resources.”  

Concession agreements between the Ministry of Mineral Resources of the Republic of Sudan and M Invest, owned by the founder of the Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin, were signed in late 2017. 

Meroe Gold, a Sudanese subsidiary of M Invest, has received privileges from the country’s authorities, and in return, it gave up 30% of its stakes in several of its projects. The US and EU have imposed sanctions on these companies. Prigozhin claims he is not a beneficiary of them. 

Commenting on the activities of the Wagner group in the Central African Republic, Jelena Aparac, an independent expert for the United Nations Working Group on the use of mercenaries, said: “We know that this is a very complicated process, so it is very difficult to determine who is behind it? How does it work? Who is giving the orders? Who is even potentially criminally responsible for human rights violations? Who is responsible for the financial transactions? But we see that it is a very complex financial and logistical system.” 

US network CNN recently published an investigation that revealed that the Wagner Group supplied Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces [RSF] with missiles to help in the conflict. RSF denies receiving help from Russia and Libya, while the Wagner Group did not comment on the findings of this investigation.

Prigozhin said that there has not been a single fighter of his group in Sudan for more than two years. “I can tell you with absolute certainty, and you can put my words in any protocols, in any highest instances, today there is not a single soldier of the PMC [private military company] “Wagner”, I emphasise – not a single one, not in Sudan,” he said on Telegram.

“And so it is more than two years. Not a single Wagner PMC soldier is present in Sudan for two years. And today there is not a single one. I think that this is the main thing that you need to know.”  He added he has been involved in Sudan for a long time, and “communicated with all the decision-makers in the Republic of Sudan.” 

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a UN press conference on Tuesday that the Sudanese authorities have the right to use the Wagner Group.

Russian media previously reported that the founder of the mercenary group took part in almost all meetings between Russian officials and Sudanese representatives starting from 2014-2016. Sudan was one of the first countries to recognise the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since then, gold has proven to be an effective way to accumulate and move funds, replenish the Russian state treasury and circumvent international financial monitoring systems.

“The Wagner Group’s interests represent primarily the Wagner Group as opposed to a specific Sudanese entity. What we’ve seen over the past several years is that Wagner keeps on switching its allegiances,” Paul Stronski, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, explained. He added that the Wagner Group is going to places where the Western community has previously failed to establish stability, and Russia is looking for ways to expand its presence in Africa.

Russia and Sudan’s military ties

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia is the main arms supplier to Sudan. Russian military equipment makes up around 87% of the Sudanese army’s armament. 

One of the main results of this cooperation is the opening of a Russian Navy base in Sudan, which will allow the Kremlin to control access to the Suez Canal and access to the Indian Ocean.

The agreement will allow Russia to establish a naval base of up to 300 Russian soldiers and maintain up to four naval ships, including nuclear ones, at Port Sudan on the Red Sea, which is of strategic importance.

In return, Russia agreed to provide Sudan with arms and military equipment. The agreement is for 25 years with an automatic extension for a 10-year period if none of the parties objects.

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Lavrov announced in February that the Sudanese military approved the agreement during his visit to Khartoum. Lavrov last visited Sudan in 2014.

An agreement to establish a Russian Navy supply point in Sudan was signed in November 2020.

But it will only come into force after the establishment of a civilian government and legislative body in Sudan, which will ratify the document.