Day: September 25, 2023

20:25, 25 September 2023

Azerbaijan’s military victory in the extended 35-year conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is a notable geopolitical setback for Russia, traditionally Armenia’s partner and ally.

Moscow’s post-Soviet strategy has often been to stoke conflicts to weaken its near neighbours, creating crises in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. But on this occasion the Kremlin has had to adapt to Azerbaijan’s rising power – showing a willingness to sacrifice an old ally.

At the beginning of the month, before the current crisis, Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, rued that his country’s historic “99.999%” dependence on Russia as security partner had amounted to “a strategic mistake”.

By then it had long been clear Russia had become embroiled in a quagmire in Ukraine – and so would be unable to prevent Azerbaijan from finally regaining control of an enclave of territory in ethnic Armenian hands over which it had wanted to assert control since the fall of the Soviet Union.

“Russian resources are clearly finite,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert with the Chatham House thinktank. “Karabakh is clearly an issue of lesser importance to Moscow, it is not a place like Crimea or Syria from which it is possible to project force.”

“In a way, Russia chose the wrong country,” argued Neil Melvin, a director at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. “Azerbaijan is much closer to Russia: the two share a border. It is clear who is now the dominant force in the south Caucasus, and looks like it wants to align to them.”

Azerbaijan is a larger, wealthier country than Armenia and an autocracy, like Russia. The country’s economy, supported by large oil and significant gas reserves, is able to afford a more powerful military – its $2.64bn (£2.16bn) defence budget is 3.5 times its neighbour in dollar terms, according to figures from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Baku had already formed an effective alliance with Turkey that provided the Bayraktar TB2 drones that helped it win the last war in 2020, a 44-day autumn conflict in which Azerbaijan took control of the skies, bombing Armenia’s Soviet-era tanks and its allies in Nagorno-Karabakh.

It recaptured territories lost in 1994 and in the ensuing peace left only the core of Nagorno-Karabakh in ethnic Armenian hands, with nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in place to control the borders and the protect the small Lachin corridor to Armenia proper.

But in the runup to the Ukraine war, Azerbaijan also turned to Moscow. Its president, Ilham Aliyev, whose father was once a KGB official and a politburo member, travelled to Moscow two days before the invasion to sign an alliance agreement with Vladimir Putin. Azerbaijan later agreed to buy gas from Russia, raising questions whether it was using that to meet commitments to the EU.

Azerbaijan’s final attack last week on Nagorno-Karabakh only lasted 24 hours. During the assault, a number of Russian peacekeepers were killed by Baku’s forces. Aliyev rang the Kremlin to apologise the next day, and the matter appears largely closed without Moscow making any significant complaint.

South of Azerbaijan lies Iran, one of Russia’s few close allies and the three countries agreed in May they would build a new rail corridor along the Caspian Sea, although claims from Мoscow that it could create a trade route to rival that of the Suez Canal seem notably optimistic.

Armenia’s prime minister, meanwhile, has complained that the Moscow-dominated six country Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), did not come to its aid and some hope that it might now try to pivot to the west. Its parliament will now consider signing up to the international criminal court, which, if ratified, could prevent Putin, because he is indicted by The Hague, from visiting.

But that is a long way from Yerevan turning to the EU and Nato. “Look at the difficulties Ukraine is having joining the EU and Nato. A country like Armenia has no chance,” Nixey said. With a long established Russian base, Gymuri, to protect it from Turkey to the west, a rapid realignment is impossible.

Russia’s inability or lack of desire to protect Armenia, though, may not have any major implications for other post-Soviet frozen conflicts because the countries involved have less power than Azerbaijan or simply less hostility to Moscow.

Magomed Torijev, a journalist and expert on the Caucasus region, argued “the government in Georgia is increasingly friendly with Russia”, with no strong interest in trying to reclaim either South Ossetia or Abkhazia while Moldova, with its own Transnistria separatists, is not ready to challenge the Kremlin.

In other countries, such as Syria, Russia’s alliance with the governing regime will help protect its position, and Moscow’s presence is likely to endure unless it is directly challenged. But what has changed, experts say, is that stronger countries such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan are willing and able to challenge Russia as never before.

“The reality is that Russia has been weakening for some time,” Melvin said.

21:05, 25 September 2023

Changes in Armenia’s foreign policy course

After the September military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, expert circles in Armenia are increasingly talking about the uselessness of the Russian presence in the region.

Analysts focus on the inactivity of Russian peacekeepers stationed on the territory of the unrecognized NKR. There are statements that the peacekeeping mission has not ensured the safety of the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, as a result of which their mass evacuation is now taking place.

Moscow accuses the Armenian Prime Minister of this, recalling the document he signed in Prague recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, including the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. While Putin himself, long before the Prague agreement, had twice publicly stated that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.

Even threats to Armenia are heard from Russia. A State Duma deputy threatened that “Armenia will cease to exist” and become a province of the Russian Federation.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also raised this topic in his Sunday address to the nation. He said that every Armenian citizen should make a choice whether he is “a participant of the movement for the defense of independence or a supporter of a submissive distant province.”

Many Armenian political analysts believe that it is necessary to urgently and definitively sever all ties with Russia, to stop considering this country as a guarantor of security, despite the possible consequences. Others suggest still calculating the risks, as the West, in their opinion, will not take responsibility for ensuring Armenia’s security.

Changes in Armenia’s foreign policy course

“Unshackled state or province?” Pashinyan’s address

“The attacks launched by Azerbaijan against the Republic of Armenia in recent years lead to the obvious conclusion that those external security systems, of which we are a part, are not effective from the point of view of the state interests and security of the Republic of Armenia,” the Armenian Prime Minister said in his address to the nation yesterday.

According to him, this was observed both during the 44-day war in Karabakh and after it, including during the recent hostilities.

In Pashinyan’s assessment, the allies on whom Armenia has relied over the years have set out to “flaunt our vulnerability and justify the Armenian people’s inability to have an independent state.”

He stated that “some partners” are making more and more efforts in that direction, jeopardizing the country’s external and internal security and violating all norms of etiquette and correctness in diplomatic and interstate relations.

The Armenian Prime Minister assured that all measures will be taken to protect the independence of the country, including

• transformation, supplementing and enriching the instruments of external and internal security in cooperation with all partners ready for mutually beneficial steps,
• comprehensive reforms of the army and security forces,
• de jure fixation of the agreements reached on October 6, 2022 in Prague and May 14, 2023 in Brussels,
• ratification of the Rome Statute.

According to Pashinyan, the deep meaning of the events taking place in Armenia is the following: “whether Armenia will be a sovereign, free, democratic state or a frightened distant province.” He believes that “the citizen of the Republic of Armenia will not lose his pride and determination and will win in this struggle for independence, sovereignty, democracy, happiness and freedom”.

Changes in Armenia’s foreign policy course

“Armenia will cease to exist.”

Yevgeny Fedorov, a State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia party, recently made a statement about the establishment of a puppet regime in Armenia that would replace Russia’s power:

“Armenia will cease to exist. We will restore control over this territory. There will be a governor there or something else.”

Statements that Armenia has lost its way and this will lead it to various kinds of disasters are also heard at the level of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

The latest warning appeared hours ago. It says that Armenia is making “a huge mistake, deliberately trying to collapse Armenia’s multifaceted and centuries-old ties with Russia and making the country a hostage of the West’s geopolitical games.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry statement comments in detail on the theses of Nikol Pashinyan’s address, which contains “unacceptable attacks on Russia.”

“The head of the government, in fact, admitted that all this time the republic was deliberately prepared to turn away from Russia. His steps, designed to set a new – Western – vector of Armenia’s development, are unconvincingly justified by alleged mistakes on the part of the Russian Federation and the CSTO,” it reads.

Russian diplomats declare that “the irresponsible approach of Pashinyan’s team has caused understandable discontent in part of the Armenian society, which was expressed in popular protests”. They claim that Russia has nothing to do with them:

“The head of the Armenian government should be well aware that Moscow does not deal with such things – unlike the West, which is quite skilled in organizing ‘color revolutions’, but by a strange coincidence chose not to notice the numerous facts of persecution of protesters by the authorities in Yerevan.”

Comments

Military and security expert Hrachya Arzumanyan insists that Armenia must take decisive steps immediately. He believes that if Armenia does not sever all ties with Russia, “the events that happened in Stepanakert will happen in Yerevan as well.”

Arzumanyan stated that there is no need for unnecessary words and declare their intentions, it is time to act. In particular, ratify the Rome Statute and withdraw from the Russian military bloc CSTO. Then, he said, the West and power centers will see that Armenia has made its choice:

“If you don’t get out from under Russia’s terrorist blackmail, everything will end up like in Artsakh, confidence will be lost. We need to blow up this blackmail to get a chance to save and protect our independence”.

According to the expert’s assessment, Russia itself has declared Armenia an enemy. He opines that Armenia as a democratic country poses an “existential threat” to Moscow.
He is convinced that Moscow is the organizer of the struggle for the change of power, which is going on these days in the streets of Yerevan. Arzumanyan believes the goal is to create chaos in Armenia and destroy the state.

Among the actions aimed at overthrowing the Armenian statehood he names the second Karabakh war in 2020 and military actions on September 19-20, 2023. The analyst declares the Russian-Turkish tandem to be their author:

“This operation will not end with Artsakh. The next step will be the territory of Armenia, Syunik [southern region of Armenia bordering Azerbaijan]”.

It is for this reason that Hrachya Arzumanyan considers it necessary to sever security ties with Russia. He suggests that Armenia build allied relations with those countries with which its national interests coincide. In addition to the collective West, he names Iran and India as potential partners.

Political observer Hakob Badalyan believes that in addition to “brave and self-confident” statements about changing the foreign policy vector, one should also seriously think about the “bloody price” that will have to be paid for it:

“And even after paying this price one should doubt the success of the change. A change of vector will mean a change of the main responsible person. This means that instead of Russia, it is the West that should become responsible. And the West does not need to emphasize the fact of its own responsibility, but only the complete overthrow of Russia’s responsibility”.

The expert says that the “alternative” offered by the West is as follows: “if you want security, you need to negotiate with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and we will provide you with a “room” for negotiations free of charge”.

It reminds that Russia has much more opportunities than Armenia to make favorable agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and at Armenia’s expense. And in order to get out of this “trap,” it is not necessary to change the vector:

“If we do not have sufficient intellectual institutional capacity to develop other mechanisms and options, it does not mean that there is only one possibility left – to change the vector, especially in the situation of a world war.”

At the same time, the observer does not think that Armenia will be immune from “new bloody stages” if it does not change the vector.

According to Badalyan, to increase resilience, changes inside the country are needed, “starting from the relations within the society and ending with the quality and content of socio-political and military institutions.”

In general, he advises to “minimize the motives and causes of acute reactions in the external field, regardless of the risk of this reaction”.

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Changes in Armenia’s foreign policy course

The Administrator of the US International Development Agency, Samantha Power, conveyed the letter of US President Joe Biden to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

The letter reads:

Dear Mr. Prime Minister,

I send my best wishes to you and the people of Armenia as you celebrate your Independence Day. This year, as we mark this proud occasion, we are also mourning the recent loss of life of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh. I have asked Samantha Power, a key member of my cabinet, to personally convey to you the strong support of the United States and my Administration for Armenia’s pursuit of a dignified and durable regional peace that maintains your sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and democracy.

Armenia has demonstrated its commitment to that purpose by engaging in peace talks with Azerbaijan as well as implementing critical economic reforms, improving government accountability and strengthening democratic institutions. I assure you that the United States will continue to stand beside Armenia as you work to strengthen the democracy at home and seek stability in your neighborhood.

The United States is committed to work with your government and addressing humanitarian needs emerging from the latest violence, which Administrator Power will discuss with you in depth. We will also continue to strengthen our cooperation on energy diversification, resilience, and security, as demonstrated by our recent military exercises.

Armenia’s rich history has inspired nations and people everywhere to strive for liberty and justice. And the Armenian-American community continues to be a source of strength in my own country. In the year ahead, I hope to continue to further deepen and strengthen the bonds between our nations – and our people”.

Mr. President,

Secretary-General,

Dear Colleagues,

Dear Friends,

It is an honor to address the United Nations General Assembly once again.

I represent Georgia, a strong nation that values freedom, cherishes its rich heritage and embraces progress amid an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.

As you are aware, my country experienced a full-scale military aggression in 2008 and continues to endure its destructive consequences. This is still evident in the occupation of 20 percent of Georgian territory by the Russian Federation and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.

I confidently state that despite the devastation we’ve endured, we have not hesitated to pursue our ambitions. We have transformed Georgia into a dynamic society, fully committed to the realization of the fundamental principles and values enshrined in the UN Charter.

Georgia understands the cost of war and recognizes the value of peace. Since 2012, our Government has built and maintained an uninterrupted decade of peace and stability.

I would like to take this opportunity to express our deep appreciation to the international community for the unwavering support to Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. To ensure our continued peaceful existence, I call on the international community to persuade the Russian Federation to engage with the “Geneva International Discussions” and fully implement the EU-mediated 2008 Ceasefire Agreement.

Thanks to our pragmatic foreign policy, we have sustained economic growth over the past decade. We continue to make critical investments to improve the quality of life for all Georgians. We have experienced double-digit economic growth for two consecutive years, with a GDP growth rate of over 10 percent in 2021 and 2022. This positive-growth trend has continued in 2023, with an average economic growth of 7 percent.

A substantial increase in GDP per capita is among my Government’s most significant achievements. Since 2012, GDP per capita has nearly doubled. We expect that this positive trend will continue. In addition, in July of this year, our official reserve assets reached a historic high, representing nearly a 90% growth in July 2023 compared to 2012. The unemployment and poverty rates are also at historical lows.

The World Justice Project’s 2022 Rule of Law Index places Georgia as the top ranking country in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions regarding the rule of law. According to the Fraser Institute’s report – Economic Freedom of the World 2022, Georgia is among the top 15 countries with the freest economies, while the Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom 2023 places Georgia 21st in Europe, ahead of 11 EU member states. The [NUMBEO] Crime Index 2023 positions Georgia as one of the safest countries in the world, ranking 18th in the world and 8th in Europe.

My Government developed and approved “Vision 2030 – Development Strategy of Georgia” in 2022 — our country’s first long-term policy framework. The document outlines a comprehensive set of reforms, covering areas like economic functions, social progress, good governance, justice, and human rights protection, to implement by 2030.

While we work towards comprehensive, multifaceted progress, we also place significant emphasis on education and social welfare. The importance of robust education systems cannot be overstated, since they serve as the cornerstone for empowered, prosperous, and productive societies. We embrace education by allocating resources to enhance digital literacy and bridge the digital divide.

Our efforts extend to all levels of education. We have allocated up to 1 billion US Dollars to rehabilitate and construct schools and kindergartens across the country. We have increased investments in healthcare and social welfare. Currently, 95 percent of our population benefits from universal healthcare and we are continuously improving the quality of these services. We are determined to ensure the best possible care for all citizens.

Dear Friends, these successes are just a fraction of the progress my country has made, but they clearly demonstrate our efforts to create opportunities for all our citizens, including those residing in the occupied territories of Georgia.

To our Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers and sisters, it is our common adversary who opposes our unity. We are an ingenious people, capable of incredible accomplishments, but only together can we ensure lasting stability, attract increased investments and reach our full potential as a united nation. We must not let this opportunity for a peaceful, stable and prosperous future together slip through our grasp.

Each step we take seeks to bring Georgia back into the European family where it belongs. The remarkable achievements of our Government since 2012, including the EU Association Agreement (AA), the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the Visa-Free regime with the European Union, demonstrate our geopolitical priority to become an EU member state.

The recognition last June of Georgia’s European Perspective has opened a new chapter in our relationship with the European Union. Recent surveys show nearly 90 percent of Georgians support EU membership, and we have demonstrated unwavering commitment to address the 12 priorities set forth for EU Candidate Status. Through a rigorous, inclusive and transparent domestic implementation process involving all stakeholders, we are on-track to complete them this year.

Our achievements deserve a favorable decision from the EU. As a frontrunner among the so-called “Associated Trio” countries, Georgia has earned EU candidate status. We anticipate that Georgia’s performance and the current geopolitical context in the region will be fairly evaluated. Granting Georgia the candidate status is the only course of action.

Considering recent developments, I would like to emphasize the importance of the rules-based international order and the fundamental principles outlined in the UN Charter.

Georgia is a responsible member of the international community actively contributing to global peace. For more than two decades, we have made substantial contributions to NATO missions worldwide, making Georgia one of the largest per capita contributors to the NATO missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. 32 brave Georgian soldiers made the ultimate sacrifice in Afghanistan, while hundreds of others suffered injuries in the pursuit of freedom and peace. Georgia sacrificed greatly to protect our shared values and common interests.

We significantly contributed to the EU-led missions and honor that commitment.

Dear Friends, as we strive for peace, prosperity, progress, and sustainability for all, it is disheartening to witness aggression against a UN member state. The war in Ukraine reawakens the trauma of the 2008 war in Georgia.

We feel the pain and hardships that Ukraine currently faces and stand in full solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

We have sponsored, joined, and supported more than 500 resolutions, statements, joint statements and other initiatives by major international organizations and institutions to support Ukraine and Ukrainian people. Our Western partners, including the United States, EU, and UK, have repeatedly praised our compliance with all international financial sanctions.

My Government has been providing substantial humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian people since the beginning of the war, both in the country and to those currently residing in Georgia. Georgian schools have welcomed more than 2,200 Ukrainian students, ensuring that most of them receive education in the Ukrainian language while following the official Ukrainian curriculum.

Let me be clear – the fundamental philosophy of our Government is to avoid war and secure peace. Despite the challenges posed by our geographic location, we have managed to keep our people safe while supporting Ukraine and the international community through prudent policies and close coordination with our partners.

Through my Government’s Peaceful Neighbor Initiative we are prepared to engage our neighbors and friends from Armenia and Azerbaijan to finally bring lasting peace to the South Caucasus.

Dear Friends, Georgia is emerging as a multi-dimensional regional hub. Our financial services sector has garnered global recognition and we are attracting international investors, infusing additional capital into our economy. We have also prioritized investments in our infrastructure to enhance connectivity, successfully harnessing logistics and energy sectors.

We are developing strategic transport corridors to establish crucial connections between Asia and Europe. Georgia’s participation in various international initiatives and infrastructure projects enhance connectivity, facilitating trade across the Black Sea region.

The Middle Corridor has emerged as a secure and reliable route connecting East with West. We signed comprehensive roadmaps with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, to eliminate bottlenecks and enhance the Middle Corridor from 2022 to 2027. These roadmaps provide for specific actions related to transport and logistics infrastructure development, operational optimization, the implementation of a unified tariff policy, corridor digitalization, and improvements to the regulatory framework.

In pursuit of enhancing East-West connectivity, Georgia established the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum in 2015 creating an international platform for dialogue among senior policymakers, businesses and community leaders. The upcoming Silk Road Forum is scheduled to take place in Tbilisi this year on October 26-27, bringing together approximately 2000 delegates, including high-ranking officials and business representatives from more than 60 countries.

Georgia has launched significant infrastructure projects, including the Railway Modernization Project. Upon its completion by the end of 2024, the throughput capacity of Georgian railways will double.

The construction of a new Anaklia Deep Sea Port, which is expected to start soon, is a top priority for my Government. This green-field PPP project will create a state-of-the-art deep-sea port on the Eastern coast of the Black Sea.

Our Government is improving air connectivity by building a new international airport in Tbilisi that will serve as a world-class transportation hub cementing Georgia’s status as a prominent player in global aviation.

Furthermore, the EU-flagship Black Sea Submarine Cable Project, initiated by Georgia, is currently underway. This Project involves the installation of a high-voltage submarine transmission grid to connect the South Caucasus region to Southeast Europe through the underwater cable. The implementation of the project will strengthen energy security in Europe and the South Caucasus region, will foster the development of renewable energy sources and create new opportunities for transit between these two regions.

While recognizing the increasing demand for energy, as well as the need to address climate change, we are actively pursuing new ventures in the field of renewable energy, including hydropower, wind, solar and other sustainable sources. Our objective is to attract investors and create a favorable environment for the establishment of innovative power plants, utilizing the Georgia’s abundant green energy potential.

All of these transformational projects will bring jobs, economic growth, and prosperity to our people and the region.

Dear Friends, Georgia has made significant progress since regaining independence. We remain dedicated to achieving even greater results for the Georgian people while making significant contributions to the global community. We stand ready to strengthen international partnerships and collaborations to ensure a more peaceful and sustainable future.

Our shared humanity binds us together and it is our collective responsibility to uplift one another and leave a lasting legacy for generations to come.

Thank you very much!

Shocking images of Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh as the murderous Azerbaijani army takes control of the mountainous enclave have emerged on social media today.

Images show the queues of cars, all heading in one direction, attempting to leave Stepanakert, the capital of ethnically and historically Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh, for the Republic of Armenia as Baku consolidates its rule over the region.

More than 3,000 people have so far crossed into Armenia from the enclave, which is home to a majority of some 120,000 ethnic Armenians. They left after the government in Yerevan announced plans to move those made homeless by Azerbaijan’s aggression.

Yerevan also warned that those who stayed could face ethnic cleansing.

Azerbaijan has said it wants to re-integrate the ethnic Armenians as “equal citizens” but the regime of Ilham Aliyev continues with its grotesque dehumanisation of Armenians.

Some of the refugees who arrived in the city of Goris on Sunday, who expressed their sadness.

“I gave my whole life to my homeland,” said one man. “It would be better if they killed me than this.”

A woman, Veronica, said that this was the second time she had become a refugee. The first time was during the conflict in 2020.

In the nearby village of Kornidzor, refugees who were being processed said they did not believe they could be safe under Azerbaijani rule and did not expect ever to be able to return home.

Taking my last footages in Stepanakert…

After an hour I’ll say goodbye… pic.twitter.com/2FkplWofTn

— Marut Vanyan (@marutvanian) September 25, 2023

Hurts to see this… pic.twitter.com/yIMnm3lE8s

— Marut Vanyan (@marutvanian) September 25, 2023

The Armenian government said in a statement on Sunday that hundreds of the refugees had already been provided with government-funded housing.

But it has not released a clear plan of how it could cope with an influx of people. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced last week that plans were in place to look after up to 40,000 refugees.

Armenia has repeatedly said a mass exodus from the region would be the fault of the Azerbaijani authorities.

#Stepanakert now.#Artsakh residents are being displaced. pic.twitter.com/IDS8xbsNXB

— Ani Abaghyan (@abaghyan_a) September 25, 2023

In the face of heavy exodus… pic.twitter.com/Ppo0nUPD2u

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 25, 2023

In a TV address on Sunday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said many inside the enclave would “see expulsion from the homeland as the only way out” unless Azerbaijan provided “real living conditions” and “effective mechanisms of protection against ethnic cleansing”.

He repeated that his government was prepared to “lovingly welcome our brothers and sisters”.

But David Babayan, an adviser to Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian leader Samvel Shahramanyan, told Reuters he expected almost everyone to leave.

His people “do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan – 99.9% prefer to leave our historic lands”, he said.

“The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a disgrace and a shame for the Armenian people and for the whole civilised world,” he told Reuters. “Those responsible for our fate will one day have to answer before God for their sins.”

painful reality of people being uprooted from their homes, their lives disrupted, and their futures uncertain pic.twitter.com/IGN6yRyfZZ

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 25, 2023

For years, walking through the residential streets of Stepanakert would unveil views of laundry lines drawn back and forth in harmony.

The residents of these still-standing buildings either have left or will soon leave. These famous lines of laundry will be taken down forever. pic.twitter.com/tluyS3MHEU

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 25, 2023

In his TV address, the Armenian prime minister also hinted that Russia had not come to its defence in the conflict.

His comments echoed criticism that Moscow had effectively handed Nagorno-Karabakh over to Azerbaijan – a charge Russia’s foreign minister has described as “ludicrous”.

“Yerevan and Baku actually did settle the situation,” Sergei Lavrov told the UN General Assembly. “Time has come for mutual trust-building.”

No words((( pic.twitter.com/dLoi4uBGeO

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 25, 2023

“People are desperately trying to find fuel while others are waiting for the bus to leave pic.twitter.com/mPFDI4Zn4J

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 25, 2023

Meanwhile, more than 140 people have been arrested in Yerevan on Monday following the latest anti-government protests, according to local media quoting the country’s interior ministry.

The Tass news agency said special forces had begun detaining demonstrators who blocked roads in Yerevan.

Police were also stationed outside the main government building, which houses the prime minister’s offices and which demonstrators have been trying to break into.

Protests first broke out last week over the government’s handling of the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Pashinyan has been accused of granting too many concessions to Aliyev and there are calls for his resignation.

The Office of the Human Rights Defender continues to collect the evidences of the civilian structure. These residential houses in Berqadzor of the Askeran region were targeted and destroyed by the Azerbaijani military forces during the attack on September 19, 2023. pic.twitter.com/mzbYTIVs3X

— Artsakh / Nagorno-Karabakh Human Rights Ombudsman (@ArtsakhOmbuds) September 24, 2023

Thousands of displaced people are now waiting for their evacuation to Armenia. Many of them simply have nowhere to stay, so they have to wait for their turn in the streets of Stepanakert. pic.twitter.com/9QQdGGMZcU

— Artsakh / Nagorno-Karabakh Human Rights Ombudsman (@ArtsakhOmbuds) September 25, 2023

Previously, Bishop Mouradian told OSV News that “Armenians have been living on that land (Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh) for more than 3,000 years.” He said, “There are a lot of churches there from the fourth, eighth, 10th centuries. It’s not a new thing for Armenians.”

Armenia was the first nation to officially adopt Christianity in 301, having been evangelized by the Apostles Thaddeus and Bartholomew between A.D. 40 and 60.

Armenia’s Kornidzor village is the first point after crossing the Lachin Corridor for this first groups of Armenian refugees. These people lost their homes during the recent military offensive by the Azerbaijani military.

Images by Yana Avanesyan.

READ MORE: WHAT NOW FOR CYPRUS AFTER NAGORNO-KARABAKH?

Armenians are hard-wired to fear genocide – and many fear the worst

Seeing the images of Karabakh Armenians fleeing, suitcases in hand, makes for sombre viewing. This region has seen mass exodus before, but there is a degree of finality to this latest episode.

The local Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have said the entire Armenian population, 120,000 of them, will leave rather than live as part of Azerbaijan.

Thousands have already crossed into Armenia, thousands more will follow, and it remains to be seen how many are brave or stubborn enough to stay in their historic homeland under Azeri rule, given the decades-long hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan which has had ownership of this mountainous plot of land at its heart.

If this does represent the end of Armenian life in Karabakh, that is a heavy legacy for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and one that – as the protests in Yerevan show – he may find hard to weather.

He made it clear he would not commit troops to fight off Azerbaijan’s 24-hour blitzkrieg last week. He has acknowledged Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the region, perhaps cognisant of the fact he cannot win another war against a militarily far stronger Azeri army backed by Turkey. He may blame Russian peacekeepers for failing to keep the peace, which is demonstrably true, but he also chose not to get involved.

Armenians are hard-wired to fear genocide and conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh have been increasingly untenable for them given the blockade.

They are leaving now because they fear the worst.

Whatever promises the Azeri president may make that they will be looked after, history shows that there is little reason to trust him.